Monday, July 16, 2007

China to Overtake Germany as #3 Largest Economy

Chinese statistics due this week are likely to show that the country is on track to leapfrog Germany as the third-biggest national economy this year, sooner than expected -- yet another sign of just how quickly the global economic balance of power is shifting.

Overtaking Germany in absolute terms may not be seen as an important triumph to China's leaders, whose priority is raising incomes and living standards that remain far below those of the developed world. And it might not be surprising that a country with 1.3 billion people produces more in a year than Germany's 82 million inhabitants. But passing that milestone could add to increasing anxieties in wealthy nations about China's rise.

Recent estimates put the size of China's gross domestic product last year at $2.8 trillion, breathing down the neck of Germany's $2.9 trillion national output for the period. Only the U.S. ($13.2 trillion) and Japan ($4.4 trillion) have bigger economies, according to International Monetary Fund data (see chart above from Wikipedia, figures are slightly different than the WSJ's).

Chinese government data for the second quarter, due out on Thursday, are expected to show that Chinese output grew by around 11% in this year's first half, a rate that economists think China will maintain this year. Even optimistic predictions for German growth, at close to 3%, are no match for that.


At 7/16/2007 9:42 PM, Blogger Marcia said...

Do they also keep track of how many people are killed or injured by the Chinese products?

Funny that our government didn't tell us about this before they told us what a great idea it was to send our manufacturing and food industries to communists.

They told us it was for the common good. Apparently they meant it was for the commie good.

At 7/17/2007 7:11 AM, Blogger juandos said...

Hmmm, well this answers my question, marciaq is most definitely a socialist...

Looking for the the nanny state to take care of the consumer, eh?

Whatever happened to that well worn but never the less true phrase, "let the buyer beware"?

Oh! BTW what government, which people in our government told us it was a great idea to send our manufacturing and food industry to the communists as you claim?

Just asking...

At 7/17/2007 2:32 PM, Blogger happyjuggler0 said...


Exchange rate determined size of an economy is ludicrous. The proper method is using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), which is to say how much one can actually buy with one's money in country.

Under that measure China is easily the number two country in the world in the size of its total economy.


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