Bull Market, Energizer Bunny Economy
Based on futures trading on Intrade:
1. Futures contracts trading for the probability of the U.S. going into recession in 2007 fell below 10% for the first time this year, and is now about 9.2% (see top graph above), down from 35% odds at the beginning of the year.
2. The contracts trading for the DJIA are trading to reflect a 35% probability that the DJIA will clost above 14,500 at the end of 2007 (an increase of 639 points from yesterday's close), up from less than 10% odds in April (bottom graph above).