Friday, July 13, 2007

Bull Market, Energizer Bunny Economy

Based on futures trading on Intrade:

1. Futures contracts trading for the probability of the U.S. going into recession in 2007 fell below 10% for the first time this year, and is now about 9.2% (see top graph above), down from 35% odds at the beginning of the year.

2. The contracts trading for the DJIA are trading to reflect a 35% probability that the DJIA will clost above 14,500 at the end of 2007 (an increase of 639 points from yesterday's close), up from less than 10% odds in April (bottom graph above).


At 7/14/2007 8:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I see you were able to use the "Energize Bunny Economy" term after all!


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