"The outlook for the restaurant industry remained positive for the coming months, as the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index
(RPI) stood well above 100 in April. The RPI – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 101.6 in April, down 0.6 percent from the strong level of 102.2 registered in March. Despite the decline, April represented the sixth consecutive month that the RPI stood above 100 (see red line in chart above), which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators.
Although the Restaurant Performance Index dipped somewhat in April, it remained solidly in positive territory. Restaurant operators reported positive same-store sales for the 11th consecutive month, and a majority of them expect business to continue to improve in the months ahead.
The Expectations Index, which measures restaurant operators’ six-month outlook for four industry indicators (same-store sales, employees, capital expenditures and business conditions), stood at 102.2 in April – down slightly from a 15-month high of 102.4 registered in March (see red line in chart). April also represented the eighth consecutive month that the Expectations Index stood above 100, which signifies a positive outlook among restaurant operators for business conditions in the coming months."
MP: Further evidence of an improving outlook for U.S. restaurants is provided by Census data showing that sales for "Food Services and Drinking Places" were up by 8.5% in April from a year earlier, following a 7.4% increase in March.
After being flat in 2008 and 2009, sales at "food services and drinking
places" are now 17% above the June 2009 level when the recession
officially ended, and set a new monthly record high (in both real and nominal dollars) of almost $44 billion in April.
Moreover, sales at "Full Service Restaurants" set a new monthly record high (both nominal and real dollars) of $20.4 billion in March, and were up by 13.1% year-over-year, following a 13.7% increase in February.
The relevant data suggest that the restaurant industry has made a full
recovery from the recession and is now operating back above
pre-recession levels for inflation-adjusted sales. Regardless of how consumers answer confidence survey questions, the strong improvements in restaurant sales and the RPI in recent months would indicate that tracking actual consumers spending on restaurant meals is reflecting a high level of consumer confidence.