Monday, April 02, 2012

Online Job Demand Jumps in March; Both Total Ads and New Ads Are Above Pre-Recession 2007 Levels

From today's Conference Board report on online labor demand:

"Online advertised vacancies rose 246,300 in March to 4,669,600, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Data Series released today. The March rise is the fourth consecutive monthly rise. The Supply/Demand rate stands at 2.9 unemployed for every vacancy; however, nationally there are still 8.4 million more unemployed than advertised vacancies.

“The March sharp rise in labor demand continued to narrow the gap between the unemployed and available job opportunities,” said June Shelp, Vice President at The Conference Board. Nationally advertised vacancies are 60 percent above their levels in June 2009, the official end of the great recession."

The Supply/Demand rate for the U.S. in February (the latest month for which the national unemployment number is available) stood at 2.90, indicating that there are just under 3 unemployed workers for every online advertised vacancy.

MP: Both total online job vacancies (4.67 million) and new ads (3.13 million) are now well above their pre-recession levels (see chart above); total ads by 5.2% and new ads by 14.0% above their 2007 peaks.  The March increase in news ads - 390,000 - was the largest monthly increase in new ads in the history of the Conference Board series.  The Supply/Demand ratio has been below 3.0 for the last two months in a row for the first time since the fall of 2008, more than three years ago. Today's Conference Board report provides more evidence that the labor market is gradually recovering, and the sharp increase in March online job vacancies forecasts increased hiring through the year. 

12 Comments:

At 4/02/2012 10:20 AM, Blogger Buddy R Pacifico said...

The Supply/Demand ratio(number of Unemployed persons divided by the number of total ads) for online ads is the most signifcant stat.

The total ads being greater than 2008 is skewed by the move away from print ads. Regardless, the recent sharp upward trend is very encouraging.

 
At 4/02/2012 12:53 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Oh no! Oh no! This might lead to inflation!

Better we choke off this growth now!!!!

 
At 4/02/2012 1:20 PM, Blogger bart said...

If one does an annual change rate on both stats, they're *substantially* slowing.

 
At 4/02/2012 1:24 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

If one does an annual change rate on both stats, they're *substantially* slowing

What rate of change are you looking at?

 
At 4/02/2012 1:26 PM, Blogger bart said...

http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/online_help_wanted_ads.png

 
At 4/02/2012 1:33 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

I don't see any substantial slowing. Both are double digit growth.

 
At 4/02/2012 1:34 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

No, I lie, the total is about 8%.

Still, that's not substantial slowing.

 
At 4/02/2012 1:50 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

So, running my own rates of change,it looks like they are using a one month comparison (comparing one month to it's twin one year ago) which isn't bad, but is pretty useless when talking about trends.

Look at the 12-month and 3-month moving totals of both, we can get a better idea of the internal trends. Doing this approach, we see both have grown by double-digits over the past 12 months and growth will likely continue in the near term, albeit at a slower pace.

 
At 4/02/2012 3:08 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

By the way, Bart, I hope you don't take this as me refuting your comment. I was just trying to enhance it.

 
At 4/02/2012 6:03 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Well maybe it will knock down some of the food stamp usuage: Foodstamp Usage Remains At All Time High, Record Number Of Households Receive $277 In Poverty Assistance Monthly

Then again maybe not...

Alabama club starts 'Food Stamp Friday' promotion

The Rose Supper Club in Montgomery will start "Food Stamp Friday" theme nights in April.

Manager Harman Wilson says the night is meant to complement the club's other theme nights, such as Fat Tuesday, Karaoke Wednesday or Thirsty Thursday.

Wilson says patrons will not be able to use their food stamps to buy alcoholic beverages. He says he hopes the novel approach will draw people to the club.

 
At 4/02/2012 7:13 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

juandos:

Re: food stamps:

"Wilson says patrons will not be able to use their food stamps to buy alcoholic beverages. He says he hopes the novel approach will draw people to the club."

Wow. What a goldmine! I can go to Wilson's club, buy foodstamps for 1/2 face value, and the sellers can then buy drinks, and I can later get discounts on my food. Win-Win.

 
At 4/03/2012 9:29 AM, Blogger bart said...

No, I lie, the total is about 8%.

Still, that's not substantial slowing.



From here, going from +20% to +8% is substantial slowing.

As far as annual change rates, I use them since they mostly eliminate the seasonal adjustments issues. Doing a 3 month or other change rate hides seasonal issues, both positive and negative.

 

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