Wednesday, April 04, 2012

Interactive Chart/Map of State Coincident Economic Activity Indexes Since Dec. 2007



The interactive chart/map above was created by the folks at Tableau Software, inspired by this CD post yesterday on North Dakota's state Coincident Economic Activity Index (calculated by the Philadelphia Fed, based on nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing, and wages and salaries).   In the map above, the Coincident Economic Activity Indexes for all of the states in blue are below their December 2007 levels, led by Nevada which is -22.27% below pre-recession level.  The other non-blues states are above their pre-recession levels, led by North Dakota, which is 21.77% above the December 2007 level.   

The other states whose coincident indexes are above pre-recession levels are New York (3.51%), Texas (3.29%), Massachusetts (2.56%), Alaska (2.05%), Minnesota (1.93%), South Dakota (1.25%), Louisiana (0.68%), Wyoming (0.56%) and Connecticut (0.28%).  

16 Comments:

At 4/04/2012 8:47 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Wow...I know this isn't the focus here, but I am surprised to see Massachusetts having done so well (comparatively).

 
At 4/04/2012 11:05 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

According to the map, California has done better than most states. Yet, its unemployment rate is 10.9%, much higher than the 5% rate in 2007:

http://www.deptofnumbers.com/unemployment/california/

 
At 4/05/2012 4:16 AM, Blogger kmg said...

Interesting that California is not doing quite so badly.

Ohio and Michigan are the worst among major states (sorry, but ND is too small to build an entire story around, despite the positives of Bakken oil).

Lets restrict the comparisons to states with at least 5 million people, and at least one good-size metro region.

 
At 4/05/2012 7:21 AM, Blogger Methinks said...

I'm also surprised that New York and Connecticut didn't do so badly. Of course, those are declining states, so it's possible that they were at such a low level that they couldn't get much lower. And the banks in Manhattan did get that bailout. I suggest anyone can do well in a recession if they are the recipients of transfer payments.

 
At 4/05/2012 9:52 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

methinks-

i'm surprised to hear you make that "bailout" argument and characterize it as transfer payments.

the banks, in aggregate, have Alfred paid tarp back, with interest.

that is hardly a transfer payment. freddy, fannoe, and the automakers, sure, that has no hope of ever being paid back, but the rest of tarp ex that rouges gallery has been a profitable loan for the treasury.

how is that a "transfer payment"?

 
At 4/05/2012 10:09 AM, Blogger Methinks said...

Morganovich,

It's true the banks have paid back the money, but that is by a long shot not the whole story.

Taxpayers were forced to lend money at a rate that did not compensate them for the risk that they took. Worse still is that the only reason they were able to repay the loans was because of the artificially low rate at which banks were able to borrow. That artificially low rate can be regarded as nothing more than a transfer from savers to banks.

The loss to American society is even greater than the loss to current savers. The increased regulation resulting from government intervention favour large banks taking more risks at the expense of others. The increase in regulation reduces competition. The government has transferred not only money but power to the the Too Big To Fails - and it comes at our expense.

So, while you and I agree about the much more obvious Fred, Fan and GM transfers, I urge you to rethink your position on the banks.

 
At 4/05/2012 11:39 AM, Blogger Breaker Morant said...

kmg>>>Ohio and Michigan are the worst among major states (sorry, but ND is too small to build an entire story around, despite the positives of Bakken oil).

Lets restrict the comparisons to states with at least 5 million people, and at least one good-size metro region.<<<<

I wonder how many manufacturing jobs in the big states are due to North Dakota oil? I see lots of pipe headed that way on trains.

 
At 4/05/2012 1:00 PM, Blogger Hydra said...

OK, so explain Conn, MA and NY.

 
At 4/05/2012 2:18 PM, Blogger Breaker Morant said...

Hydra>>>OK, so explain Conn, MA and NY<<<

I think you are talkin to me. Other things besides oil and mfg stuff for oil. I have never said oil/energy is the only thing to pursue. It can be a PART of the solution on a national level.

My main point was that there is a tendency for commenters on this site to automatically dismiss North Dakota oil because it is a small state. I submit that the national economic footprint of ND oil is MUCH larger than what is occurring within the confines of the state.

 
At 4/05/2012 3:01 PM, Blogger Breaker Morant said...

I think a big mistake that the "Slam North Dakota for being small" people and I think even Mark makes it often is to look simply at the unemployment rate in North Dakota.

This rate means absolutely nothing. North Dakota is not a state with a static labor force which had an oil strike and the unemployed went to work in the fields.

North Dakota has absorbed 10's of thousands of workers from other states. In essence, North Dakota oil jobs have directly lowered the unemployment rates in other states.

 
At 4/05/2012 3:34 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

North Dakota has absorbed 10's of thousands of workers from other states. In essence, North Dakota oil jobs have directly lowered the unemployment rates in other states

That's assuming that labor mobility is easy. Given the troubles in the housing market and the lack of mobility around the nation, I am thinking this is unlikely.

OK, so explain Conn, MA and NY

I don't know too much about the economy of NY and CT, but Massachusetts has lots of medical and high tech manufacturing there (Genzyme, Raytheon, American Paper Company, Bose, just to name a few). These guys climbed out of the recession very quickly.

 
At 4/06/2012 9:09 AM, Blogger Breaker Morant said...

>>>North Dakota has absorbed 10's of thousands of workers from other states. In essence, North Dakota oil jobs have directly lowered the unemployment rates in other states

That's assuming that labor mobility is easy. Given the troubles in the housing market and the lack of mobility around the nation, I am thinking this is unlikely.<<<

WTF? Are you referring to Soviet Russia?

 
At 4/06/2012 9:34 AM, Blogger Breaker Morant said...

For Jon Murphy

http://www.thedickinsonpress.com/event/article/id/56842/

There are countless anecdotes coming out of the oil patch like this. Links don't apparently work here but just cut and paste the URL.

Pull quote from the article>>"“It’s so refreshing to be around so many people who have such a heart of adventure,” Eric said."

What a sad life you must lead Jon Murphy-not to know even be able to imagine anyone who has the gumption to head to the ND oil patch.

 
At 4/06/2012 9:43 AM, Blogger Breaker Morant said...

Sorry-I changed the sentence in my above post mid-stream and it did not come out clear-I meant to say

What a sad life you must lead Jon Murphy-not to know or even be able to imagine anyone who has the gumption to head to the ND oil patch.

 
At 4/06/2012 1:41 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

Breaker,

"North Dakota has absorbed 10's of thousands of workers from other states. In essence, North Dakota oil jobs have directly lowered the unemployment rates in other states."

That's correct, and besides the direct jobs in ND, jobs in other states are created to support the oil jobs, such as manufacturing the pipe you mentioned.

However.

As ND does have a small population, all these numbers are large in comparison.

While this is all good news, if this was happening elsewhere, in California for instance, we wouldn't likely hear so much about it, as the change in employment numbers etc. would be much less noticeable.

 
At 4/20/2012 6:32 PM, Blogger james said...

Their are a few states that are exceptions to the over all performance of the economy in general But that would most likly always be the case.

 

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