Tuesday, March 27, 2012

China: America's Third Largest and Fastest Growing (By Far) Export Market, 2000-2011

Click to enlarge.

Some highlights from the U.S.-China Business Council's recently released report "U.S. Exports to China: 2000-2011":

1. China is now the third-largest U.S. export market, and U.S. exports to China continue to expand rapidly. As a buyer of U.S. goods, China ranks behind only Canada and Mexico—two immediate neighbors with whom the United States has a regional free-trade agreement (see top chart above).

2. Between 2000 and 2011, total U.S. exports to China rose 542 percent, from $16.2 billion to $103.9 billion. Total U.S. exports to the rest of the world increased only 80 percent during this period (see bottom chart above).

3. Top exports to China in 2011 included agricultural products ($14.7 billion), computers and electronics ($13.7 billion), chemicals ($13.6 billion), and transportation equipment, primarily aerospace and autos ($13.2 billion).

4. The nearly $88 billion increase in exports to China during 2000–11 exceeded the increase to every other market for U.S. goods and farm products, with the exception of Canada. U.S. exports to Canada rose $102 billion over the same period, while U.S. exports to Mexico rose $86 billion. Brazil was a distant fourth with just a $28 billion increase in purchases of US products.

5. Thirty states now count China as one of their top three export markets and 25 states exported more than $1 billion to China in 2010, with export categories reflecting a broad range of products. The list of top 15 state exporters to China in 2011 includes states not usually thought of as benefiting from trade with China: Michigan, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina.

Related: Bloomberg Businessweek article "China's Surprising U.S. Buying Spree"

21 Comments:

At 3/28/2012 8:08 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

GM sold more vehicles in China than the U.S. in 2010
Jan 24, 2011

GM sold 2,351,610 vehicles in China in 2010, up 28.8% over 2009.

By contrast it sold 2,215,227 in the U.S., up 6.3%.

GM total sales worldwide were up 12.2% to 8,389,769.

GM's Top Ten Global Markets

1.China, 2,351,610, up 28.8%
2.USA, 2,215,227, up 6.3%
3.Brazil, 657,825, up 10.4%
4.U.K., 290,250, up 1%
5.Germany, 269,061, down 29.5%
6.Canada, 247,104, down 2.8%
7.Italy, 169,955, down 9.9%
8.Russia, 159,199, up 12.4%
9.Mexico, 155,590, up 12.4%
10.Uzbekistan, 145,151, 41.3%

 
At 3/28/2012 8:13 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

China auto sales slow in 2011
13 Jan, 2012

Vehicle sales in China rose a scant 2.5 per cent in 2011, the slowest growth in over a decade, as higher prices and traffic controls kept buyers out of showrooms.

The expiration of tax incentives and subsidies, along with new restrictions on car purchases in Beijing, slowed sales.

China's market is bound to continue to expand, given the relatively low level of vehicle ownership among increasingly affluent families.

The development of China's auto industry will be limited not by market demand or economic growth, ``but by severe traffic congestion, air pollution and energy shortages,'' said Jia.

Ford's sales for the year climbed 7 per cent to 519,390 vehicles.

 
At 3/28/2012 8:44 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

It seems, few SUVs, light trucks, or minivans are sold in China. However, it buys "luxury" cars:

In China, Car Brands Evoke an Unexpected Set of Stereotypes
November 14, 2011

Buick...is one of the hottest luxury cars in China.

The Audi A6, the semiofficial choice of Chinese bureaucrats.

“It’s always best to yield to an Audi — you never know who you’re messing with, but chances are it’s someone self-important.”

The lower rungs of the Chinese market are still dominated by domestic brands like Chery.

The affluent, however, are flocking to an increasingly diverse array of foreign luxury offerings.

China’s romance with the Buick also has historical roots. The last Chinese emperor, Pu Yi, was the proud owner of two Buicks.

In 2010, Buick sold over 550,000 cars in China, more than triple its sales in the United States.

 
At 3/28/2012 9:51 AM, Blogger Buddy R Pacifico said...

What is the #1 U.S. export to China?

Soybeans, by far the biggest export.

In case you are wondering: soybeans are the third most subsidized ag crop by U.S. taxpayers.

 
At 3/28/2012 9:54 AM, Blogger Buddy R Pacifico said...

"In 2010, Buick sold over 550,000 cars in China, more than triple its sales in the United States."

New Buicks that are sold in China are made in Shanghai, but some used ones may have been U.S. made.

 
At 3/28/2012 10:05 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

China is smaller than some people believe, because two-thirds of the country has been almost uninhabitable for thousands of years, and 90% of the population lives in a small area (also, the Gobi desert is expanding by 1,000 square miles a year):

Maps:

http://www.chinatouristmaps.com/china-maps/population/full-population-map.html

http://geology.com/articles/satellite-photo-earth-at-night.shtml

 
At 3/28/2012 10:21 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Buddy, yes, and Apple also produces new iPhones in China.

 
At 3/28/2012 11:18 AM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Look at pathetic Japan in these charts. Underperforms socialist Netherlands, Germany, corrupt Mexico.

If the "strong currency" crowd makes any sense, explain Japan. The yen is the strongest currency in the West and Japan has been the weakest economy in the West for many years running, as in 20.

 
At 3/28/2012 3:06 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Look at pathetic Japan in these charts. Underperforms socialist Netherlands, Germany, corrupt Mexico.

Methinks you're misreading the chart. This just shows where US exports are going. There is no "under-performing" going on here.

If the "strong currency" crowd makes any sense, explain Japan. The yen is the strongest currency in the West and Japan has been the weakest economy in the West for many years running, as in 20.

The Yen has only been strong (relatively) recently. It has been very weak much of the past decade.

 
At 3/28/2012 5:22 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Jon-

Since 1992, and the Bank of Japan decision to pursue mild deflation, industrial output in Japan is down 20 percent, real wages down 15 percent, equities down 75 percent, and property down 80 percent.

They are not only hurting themselves, but you can see they are hurting the USA but becoming a piss-poor consumer of our goods and services. Ironically, Japan has hurt us far worse with tight money than any Islamic lunatics ever could.

The yen has unevenly risen in spasms (with some retreats) all through the 1992 to present period. It is one of the strongest currencies in the world.

The strong currency of Japan has not produced any perceptible benefits for Japan, but has turned the nation into a backwater loser.

 
At 3/28/2012 5:48 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Ok, putting aside the obvious lack of economic sense in your argument, you do realize Japan is the 4th largest export market for the US?

C'mon, Benjamin, you're usually more spot on than this, but it seems like you're reading correlation to be causation. I mean, if weak currencies were the ultimate objective, why doesn't everyone do it? Why did the US go so fast when pursuing a stable currency? Why don't all countries actively try to devalue their currency?

 
At 3/28/2012 7:10 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Jon-

I realize a premise among many is that we must have a "strong dollar."

Okay, USA exports are surging now in a so-so global economy. Why? Is this good or bad?

Secondly--Milton Friedman, Alan Meltzer, John Taylor, Ben Bernanke and Frederic Mishkin all have advised Jpan to go heavy into QE and print way more money.

The above are all conservatives and GOP solons. (Maybe not Mishkin).

See Friedman Hoover Institution, http://www.hoover.org/publications/hoover-digest/article/6549

Also, go to 2006 in John Taylor's website and read his article gushing about QE in Japan.

I mean, if you get any more right-wing than this, you wear jodhpurs and jackboots, and dance jigs when you hear martial music.

Yes, Japan has hurt itself most, but it could have grown into a strong market for USA goods and services (as China has) but instead buys the same as it did in 1992.

If all nations followed Japan''s example, we would have seen no or scant global growth since 1992.

 
At 3/28/2012 7:57 PM, Blogger andyweintraub said...

At the moment, China would rather buy U.S. goods and services instead of U.S. treasuries. This should be a warning to those who assume we can finance deficits indefinitely.

 
At 3/28/2012 8:12 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

First off, I don't see how the political affiliations of the people you mentioned have anything to do with the economics of Japan. But that's for another time.

Japan is a warning, that's for sure. They have a broke banking system, spend recklessly, and tried to concentrate their economy in one area. The 20 years of Japanese...I'm hesitant to call it stagnation because they have grown...let's call it sluggishness, is due more to them putting all their eggs in one basket, namely technology and car exports. this is the all too predictable result of a one-track economy.

There is also the case of economic isolationism. Japanese investors inherently find foreign investments more risky than Japanese ones. They are less willing to bring companies into China and invest overseas. This keeps a lot of the investment within the country, overvaluing things like government bonds.

The currency issue may be a symptom of what's going on, but to claim it is the reason why Japan is where they are is not seeing the forest through a leaf.

 
At 3/28/2012 10:30 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Andyweintraub says: "China would rather buy U.S. goods and services instead of U.S. treasuries. This should be a warning to those who assume we can finance deficits indefinitely."

We can finance deficits indefinitely, and have financed deficits in the long-run, by exchanging worth less paper for valuable goods.

China chose the inferior policy to boost output and employment through net exports, because it had to, unlike the U.S..

 
At 3/28/2012 10:49 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

The U.S. can offshore low-end and some high-end manufacturing to China, but what can China offshore to the U.S.?

And even if China could offshore a product to the U.S., why would it? I doubt it can afford, or even survive, reduced output and employment.

 
At 3/29/2012 7:45 AM, OpenID vadim-rimsky said...

Picture: US Export market per capita, 2011

1. Canada $8,167
2. Hong Kong $5,084
3. Netherlands $2,564
4. Mexico $1,800
5. United Kingdom $894
6. Korea $888
7. Germany $603
8. Japan $518
9. Brazil $220
10. China $77

Population in countries (IMF data) here.

 
At 3/29/2012 8:12 AM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

The U.S. can offshore low-end and some high-end manufacturing to China, but what can China offshore to the U.S.?

Technological development. We create these amazing technologies and sell them to the Chinese so they don't have to.

 
At 3/29/2012 11:23 AM, Blogger Ron H. said...

Peak: "The U.S. can offshore low-end and some high-end manufacturing to China, but what can China offshore to the U.S.?"

Jon M: "Technological development. We create these amazing technologies and sell them to the Chinese so they don't have to."

Treasuries. We create those amazing instruments through deficit spending and sell them to the Chinese so they don't have to.

 
At 3/29/2012 2:12 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

You making fun of me, Ron? :-P

 
At 3/30/2012 4:20 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

Jon M: "You making fun of me, Ron? :-P"

Gee, just trying to help. :)

 

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