Wednesday, November 16, 2011

U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil Lowest Since 1995

From Daniel Yergin's September WSJ article "There Will Be Oil":

"In 2003, the Bakken formation in North Dakota was producing a mere 10,000 barrels a day. Today, it is over 400,000 barrels, and North Dakota has become the fourth-largest oil-producing state in the country. Such "tight" oil could add as much as two million barrels a day to U.S. oil production after 2020—something that would not have been in any forecast five years ago.

Overall U.S. oil production has increased more than 10% since 2008. Net oil imports reached a high point of 60% in 2005, but today, thanks to increased production and greater energy efficiency (plus the use of ethanol), imports are down to 47%."


MP: The chart above displays oil imports as a share of U.S. consumption back to 1973 (data here), showing that dependence on foreign oil has fallen to 46.3% this year (average through September) and is the lowest in 16 years, since the 44.5% share in 1995.

9 Comments:

At 11/17/2011 12:16 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

"...thanks to increased production and greater energy efficiency (plus the use of ethanol), imports are down to 47%."

We can also thank $100 oil and depression.

 
At 11/17/2011 12:34 AM, Blogger Rufus II said...

A couple of things. U.S. Oil Consumption fell by 12.8% from 2005 to 2011

and, Biofuels production increased approx. 1 Million bbl/day during the same period.

 
At 11/17/2011 12:38 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Rufus, it's down 2 million barrels a day compared to 2007:

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/07/us-oil-consumption.html

 
At 11/17/2011 6:05 AM, Blogger Larry G said...

perspective here:

we USE...20 MILLION barrels PER DAY so we are generating about 1/2 million a day more domestically than we used to but what are the prospects longer term?

are we going to become self-sufficient?

not likely... but who knows.

 
At 11/17/2011 9:51 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

anwr could tilt this even further, but i am left asking "so what"?

i am all for domestic production. there is no reason not to do it. but this seems an odd tack for you to take mark.

generally, you seem to be strongly in favor of trade and supportive of ideas like comparative advantage.

i am fairly certain that you would not applaud moves to be self sufficient in blu ray players or automobiles.

what makes oil different?

there seem to be strong and persuasive arguments for upping our own production to keep prices down in a market with such high price elasticity of demand and a cushion against supply shocks, but that does not seem like what you are arguing.

why do we need to treat oil differently than clothing or any other basic good?

are you making a geopolitical argument?

 
At 11/17/2011 10:35 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Iraq has the potential to increase oil production from 3 million barrels a day to 12 million within 10 years:

Iraq Could Delay Peak Oil a Decade

"The major producers (e.g. Russia and Saudi Arabia) seemed to have more-or-less reached production plateaus.

Iraq's oil capacity could reach 12 million barrels per day (bpd) in six years, the country's oil minister says.

Six years is not a short period for a large oilfield development in a flat desert - a fairly undemanding operating environment by oil industry standards."

******

Nov 16, 2011

"...new wells in promising areas and building pipelines and other infrastructure needed to fulfill Iraq's ambitious goal of ramping up capacity to 12 million barrels per day by 2017, a figure that would rival top global producer Saudi Arabia.

Iraq's current production is 2.9 million bpd."

 
At 11/17/2011 10:41 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Top World Oil
Producers, 2009
(Thousand Barrels per Day)

Country Production

1 Russia 9,934
2 Saudi Arabia 9,760
3 United States 9,141
4 Iran 4,177
5 China 3,996
6 Canada 3,294
7 Mexico 3,001
8 United Arab Emirates 2,795
9 Brazil 2,577
10 Kuwait 2,496
11 Venezuela 2,471
12 Iraq 2,400
13 Norway 2,350
14 Nigeria 2,211
15 Algeria 2,086

http://www.eia.gov/countries/index.cfm

 
At 11/17/2011 4:29 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

Imagine how less dependent the US will be when there is another economic collapse. Get out the party hats.

And does anyone really expect that biofuel subsidies will continue? Or that shale producers can continue to attract financing even as they lose money on their operations?

 
At 11/18/2011 8:57 AM, OpenID voxrationalis said...

The variation of "dependence" on foreign oil is highly correlated with consumption. Not a surprise; the more we consume, the more we need to import. As consumption has declined by 9% in the last 5-6 years, so have our imports of foreign oil.

Graph here.

 

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