Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Architecture Indexes Improve in October

"After a sharp dip in September, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) climbed nearly three points in October (see chart above). As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the October ABI score was 49.4, following a score of 46.9 in September. This score reflects an overall decrease in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 57.3, up from a reading of 54.3 the previous month."

Related: See Reuters report here.

8 Comments:

At 11/16/2011 3:05 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

improve yes, but it is still under 50 and therefore contracting.

this is born out in the housing starts number which is still scraping along the lows at 410k vs 1.8 million in 2007.

 
At 11/16/2011 3:23 PM, Blogger Bill said...

Not just housing, but commercial as well. I talk to a lot of architects in Atlanta and they all say the same thing: their business is in a deep depression.

 
At 11/16/2011 3:49 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

The mix of consumption has changed over the past few years.

A worker earning $5,000 a month, for example, is still spending $4,500 a month.

Of course, he's not buying a new house, a new auto, clothing at 70% off, etc.

Yet, he's spending each month, perhaps at restaurants, on an iPhone, or on non-durable goods, etc.

Unemployed workers had to cut back, although they're maintaining autonomous consumption.

And many of the employed are working overtime, because firms are less likely to hire new workers.

 
At 11/16/2011 5:21 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

The Fed needs to get aggressive--the PPI, CPI and unit labor costs are all going down.

What does it take to make Bernanke show some nerve?

 
At 11/16/2011 10:54 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

National Retail Federation (NRF)

Retailers Will Hire Estimated 480,000 - 500,000 Seasonal Employees This Year.

NRF is projecting 2011 holiday sales to rise 2.8% from 2010.

If NRF's 2.8% estimate is correct, holiday sales this year would be $465.6 billion.

In 2010, holiday sales increased 5.2% to $452.9 billion, which was a significant improvement from the -0.4% decrease in 2009.

On average, holiday sales have increased 2.6% per year for the last 10 years.

 
At 11/16/2011 11:07 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Nov. 6, 2011

ShopperTrak predicts a 2.2 percent increase in sales from last year.

American Research Group Inc...found more than 35 percent planning to cut back on holiday spending because of rising food prices.

Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst for NPD Group Inc., said Halloween produced a lot of traffic at retail stores -- but much of it was browsing, not buying.

The Shop.org eHoliday survey indicates online sales will do better...with consumers planning to do 36 percent of their shopping online, compared to 32.7 percent in 2010.

 
At 11/17/2011 11:45 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

"ShopperTrak predicts a 2.2 percent increase in sales from last year."

note that that is a decline in real terms of about 1.5% and one likely to widen as CPI is going back up in a big way in November.

 
At 11/17/2011 11:59 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Morganovich, perhaps, but Real Retail and Food Services Sales increased recently:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RRSFS

 

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