Friday, June 03, 2011

Private Sector Jobs Have Increased by 2 Million Since 2010, and Are Growing at 132,000 per Month

The chart above shows monthly private-sector jobs since January 2005 calculated by the BLS from two different methods: a) the household survey, which is larger and includes self-employed workers, and b) the establishment survey, based on company payroll records.  Over time they move very closely, although monthly variations are common - for May the household survey showed a gain of 373,000 private-sector jobs, compared to a gain of only 83,000 private payroll jobs.  But since the cyclical bottom in December 2009, both surveys are showing gains of more than 2.1 million private-sector jobs, which is a healthy increase of 132,000 private-sector jobs per month on average.  In the first five months of 2011 through May, private sector job growth has accelerated to an average of 200,000 new jobs per month, according to the household survey.  

For some related commentary, see Scott Grannis' post today "The Employment Situation Continues to Improve," with this conclusion: "The economy may have hit a mild soft patch, but it is not sinking and is likely to continue to grow. Optimists will once again be rewarded for their patience."  Scott also comments on the positive effects of the decline in public sector jobs:

"We are now seeing evidence that a significant shrinkage in the bloated public sector workforce doesn't necessarily lead to a painful result for the economy as a whole. In fact, cutting back government spending can free up resources that can be put to better use by the private sector, making the economy stronger over time. This is a trend that is now firmly in place, and that's very good news."

Additionally, Brian Wesbury comments today that: "Yes, May data shows a “soft patch,” but the economy is still expanding and should accelerate in the months ahead."

23 Comments:

At 6/03/2011 1:28 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"Private Sector Jobs Growing at 132,000 per Month"...

Ahhh, absolute nonsense...

Seriously, job growth is total nonsense...

 
At 6/03/2011 1:30 PM, Blogger Mark J. Perry said...

Check the data.

 
At 6/03/2011 1:37 PM, Blogger Bill said...

Dr. Perry,

Check out the NY Fed's June 1 update of its graph showing the probability of a recession. I believe it's still very low at .60%. A good rejoinder to all the doom and gloom.

 
At 6/03/2011 2:22 PM, Blogger Rufus II said...

Everything around here fell off a cliff toward the end of Feb.

 
At 6/03/2011 2:26 PM, Blogger James said...

Be that as it is, job growth is anemic by any standard. Another 10 years of job growth not significantly (double to triple) better than we have had since 2010 and left wing Democrats will achieve a New Deal like control of government which they will use to bring about full fledged socialism.

 
At 6/03/2011 2:43 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"Check the data"...

Actually Professor Mark, shouldn't it be, "check the source of the data?"?

 
At 6/03/2011 3:05 PM, Blogger Eric H said...

Juandos, you just aren't looking at the data correctly.

 
At 6/03/2011 3:33 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

that 2 million is less than a third of the jobs lost in the recession.

i know employment is a lagging variable, but this is a far weaker job recovery than in any other post ww2 recession.

132k jobs/month is a terrible number.

 
At 6/03/2011 3:46 PM, Blogger Angela said...

Half of all those jobs came from McDonalds? http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/half-last-months-jobs-came-single-employer-mcdonalds_573220.html

 
At 6/03/2011 3:53 PM, Blogger Rufus II said...

The only groups to see their unemployment rate go down were: "teenagers" (-0.7%,) and "high school grads" (-0.2%)


In other words, McDonalds was hiring (in fact, they accounted for half of the 54,000.)

One can only assume that they got a little help from Wendy's, Taco Bell, and Burger King, et al.

 
At 6/03/2011 3:55 PM, Blogger Rufus II said...

We're in a world of trouble.

 
At 6/03/2011 4:07 PM, Blogger Eric H said...

The BLS Labor force statistics from the Current Population Survey state that the labor force population (age 16+) increased by 551,000 in the month of May.

So, at 200,000 new jobs per month, we've now "accelerated" to only 65% unemployment for those entering the labor force.

 
At 6/03/2011 4:46 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

I wonder how many jobs were created by the "Obamacare" waivers? (which includes McDonalds):

Over Half of All Obamacare Waivers Given to Union Members
May 16, 2011

The Obama administration granted 200 more companies waivers from the Democrats' sweeping health care law...That brings the number of companies receiving waivers to 1,372.

Unions already received a generous concession...Their generous "cadilac" insurance plans were exempted from being taxed until 2018, adding about $120 billion to the bill’s cost over ten years.

 
At 6/03/2011 4:59 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Why should waiverless firms hire when they feel left out?

I knew it should've been called Pelosicare:

Health reform waivers granted in Pelosi's district upset conservatives
May 17, 2011
CBS News

Conservatives today have responded angrily to a report...that of the 204 waivers the HHS granted in April...38 went to businesses in Pelosi's district -- nearly 20 percent of the total.

 
At 6/03/2011 7:49 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Eric H now that struck me as seriously funny amigo...

Thanks for the laugh, much appreciated...

 
At 6/03/2011 8:51 PM, Blogger bob wright said...

juandos,

you often link to the American Thinker.

Do you have any insight to the people editing American Thinker:

1) who are they and
2) what is their political and/or economic philosophy? (libertarian, progressive, conservative, etc)

 
At 6/04/2011 12:13 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"Do you have any insight to the people editing American Thinker..."...

I think the following from Albert Spear describes American Thinker better than I could: American Thinker: An Effective Right Wing

For me personally the American Thinker articles and opinion pieces reflect the writers collective desire to stay within the bounds of the real world and that federal government should stay within the bounds of the US Constitution...

I tend to think that makes more sense...

 
At 6/04/2011 1:02 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Scott Grannis says: "...cutting back government spending can free up resources that can be put to better use by the private sector, making the economy stronger over time. This is a trend that is now firmly in place, and that's very good news."

Freeing-up resources when there are already massive idle resources is one reason why the recovery is so slow.

The best time to free-up resources is when an economic recovery is underway, i.e. when the country reaches full employment.

At that point, contractionary fiscal policy can be offset by accommodative monetary policy to sustain the expansion.

 
At 6/04/2011 1:39 PM, Blogger Tom said...

Patience and optimism in a time of rampant government dominance of the economy is foolish. Cut government spending and regulations in half.

 
At 6/04/2011 1:53 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Tom, if you want to keep fiscal policy neutral, spending cuts need to be matched with tax cuts.

 
At 6/06/2011 12:57 AM, Blogger James said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 6/06/2011 1:00 AM, Blogger James said...

Net of 23,500 Jobs a Month

If I go to the HOUSEHOLD DATA Table A-9. Selected employment indicators I see that in May 2011 total employment is 139,779,000 and in May 2010 it was 139,497,000. An increase of 282,000 for the year or an average increase of 23,500 a month.

 
At 6/06/2011 10:40 AM, Blogger StVIS said...

I don't think there's much of a reason to be excited.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2011/06/04/2011-06-04_mcdonalds_april_hiring_spree_could_have_accounted_for_half_of_mays_job_growth_re.html

 

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