Friday, June 03, 2011

Household Survey: Private Sector Gains 373,000 Jobs in May, Public Sector Loses 417,000 Jobs

The chart above shows monthly employment levels for private-sector workers vs. full-time government workers, based on data from the BLS household survey (private sector employment is calculated by subtracting government employment from total nonagricultural employment). From the peak in late 2008, government payrolls have decreased by more than 1.2 million through May, while the number of private sector workers has increased by more than 2.5 million since the low in late 2009.  

The fact that private sector jobs are continuing to increase while public sector jobs are declining could be considered a positive side-effect of the 2007-2009 recession, i.e. the recession-related 5.6% contraction of the public sector employment.  In May alone, there was a decrease of 417,000 government jobs, following losses of 132,000 in April and 75,000 in March, totaling 549,000 for the last three months, and that's really the main source of labor market weakness - it's mostly in the public sector, not the private sector. 

Based on the household measure of private sector employment, there was a 373,000 job increase in May, following a 11,000 decrease in April and 370,000 increase in March.  In comparison, private payroll jobs increased by only 83,000 in May, following increases of 251,000 in April and 219,000 in March.   

Year-to-date, one million jobs have added in the private industries according to the household survey, slightly higher than the 908,000 jobs added according to private payroll data.  Either way, the household survey and payroll data are showing monthly private job gains of around 200,000 so far this year, suggesting that the labor market, especially for private sector employment, might have some underlying strength that is not showing up in today's Employment Situation report.

15 Comments:

At 6/03/2011 11:48 AM, Blogger Dr William J McKibbin said...

The US employment to population ratio was down again in May 2011 from year ago -- more at:

http://wjmc.blogspot.com/2011/06/us-employment-to-population-ratio.html

Many economists believe that reporting the number employed as a percentage of the civilian population provides a more accurate description of the current state of employment than conjecturing the number of "unemployed" in a population.

 
At 6/03/2011 12:32 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

i agree with you about workforce participation.

the recent drop has poor implications.

we are 6 points off the 2000 peak of 64.5%.

that's a huge number.

add in the record numbers of part time for financial reasons workers and it's clearly not a great job market.

add in the post war record number of "unemployed for over 26 weeks" and you get a sense that there is a serious dislocation in the market somewhere.

it seems to be focused on less educated men, likely in part due to the travails of the construction industry.

there is no easy fix for that.

it's going to be some time before housing starts pick up.

 
At 6/03/2011 12:43 PM, Blogger Rufus II said...

Build a 20 Million Gallon/Yr Cellulosic Ethanol Refinery/Electric Power Plan in EVERY County in the U.S.

Puts a Million + Iron Workers, Pipefitters, Carpenters, Plumbers, Concrete Workers, Electricians, and Laborers to Work (and Off unemployment, Food Stamps, Medicaid,) Now.

 
At 6/03/2011 12:47 PM, Blogger Rufus II said...

Replaces 50 Billion Gallons/Yr of imported oil, and knocks approx. $200 Billion/Yr off our Trade Deficit.

 
At 6/03/2011 12:59 PM, Blogger Stephan said...

Only an Austrian economics sociopath can come up with your conclusions. Hey the economy is going down the drain. Doesn't matter! Government is shrinking! Bravo!

 
At 6/03/2011 1:00 PM, Blogger Rufus II said...

Iowa's unemployment rate ticked Down in April to 6.0% (May isn't available yet.)

Iowa is a Net Energy and Food Exporter, and, they would be Even if you took out any coal, nuclear, or gas-fired electrical generation.

Ethanol, Biodiesel, and Wind Energy Alone would make Iowa more than "Energy Independent."

Also, IIRC, they have about the highest, if not The highest, rated K - 12 System in the country.

 
At 6/03/2011 1:11 PM, Blogger Buddy R Pacifico said...

Very interesting chart Professor; thanks. Glad to see large rfeductions in government payrolls (finally).

The U.S. trade deficits with some countries is an abysmal situation.

I suggest that trade, with countries that don't have a Free Trade agreement with the U.S., should be eliminated. Sustained massive trade deficits are causing sustained job deficits.

 
At 6/03/2011 1:37 PM, Blogger Rufus II said...

3,400 btus = 1 kwhr

1 gal ethanol = 76,000 btus

1gal ethanol = 22 kwhrs

Avg per capita consumption = 12,000 kwhrs

Iowa population = 3,000,000

3,000,000 X 12,000 kwhrs = 36 Billion kwhrs or 36,000 Gigawatt hrs. Remember that Number.

It would require approx 550 gal X 3,000,000 to fuel every car in Iowa with 100% Ethanol.

3,000,000 X 550 = 1,650,000,000 gallons needed to fuel Iowa's fleet of personal vehicles. Approx. 850,000,000 gallons required for commercial trucks, tractors, etc.

Iowa produces right at 4 Billion gallons/yr of Ethanol/Biodiesel

After supplying gasoline, and diesel needs that leaves a surplus of 1,500,000,000 gallons.

Now, They need 36,000 Gigawatts of Electricity. Remember? They get about 10,000 Gigawatt/hrs from wind.

1.5 Billion gallons of excess ethanol, and biodiesel X 22 = 33 Billion kilowatt hrs, or 33,000 Gigawatt Hrs.

Ergo: From Wind (10,000 GW/hrs,) and from biofuels (33,000 GW/hrs,) they more than match their needed 36,000 Gigawatt Hrs.

 
At 6/03/2011 2:09 PM, Blogger Rufus II said...

Oops, Mea Culpa. I'm Wrong. I didn't account for the approx 25,000 btus of nat gas to distill a gallon of ethanol. That puts them, temporarily, about 15,000 GW hrs short.

Still some work to do. :)

 
At 6/03/2011 2:37 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

"Build a 20 Million Gallon/Yr Cellulosic Ethanol Refinery/Electric Power Plan in EVERY County in the U.S.

Puts a Million + Iron Workers, Pipefitters, Carpenters, Plumbers, Concrete Workers, Electricians, and Laborers to Work (and Off unemployment, Food Stamps, Medicaid,) Now.
"

I've already debunked this idea for you on an earlier thread at this blog. I guess you weren't paying attention, or maybe you just didn't want reality to interfere with your simple dream.

"Still some work to do. :)"

Boy, I'll say!

What is your source for all those numbers? Please reference only actual numbers, not blue sky hopes for the future.

 
At 6/03/2011 2:58 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"Hey the economy is going down the drain. Doesn't matter! Government is shrinking! Bravo!"...

Well Stephan when you have as many parasites as present day government has (governments don't generate money, they just extort it) is it any wonder the economy is in a fragile state?

 
At 6/03/2011 3:05 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"I've already debunked this idea for you on an earlier thread at this blog"...

Yes you have Ron H and did a very good job of it too...

Consider the simplicity of the following two year old op-ed from Popular Mechanics that also drives nails into the coffin of putting corn in the gas tank: The Ethanol Fallacy

By James B. Meigs

My favorite line from the op-ed: 'If the benefits are in doubt, the costs are not. It would take 450 pounds of corn to yield enough ethanol to fill the tank of an SUV. Producing enough ethanol to replace America's imported oil alone would require putting nearly 900 million acres under cultivation—or roughly 95 percent of the active farmland in the country. Once we've turned our farms into filling stations, where will the food come from?'...

 
At 6/03/2011 3:36 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

"Only an Austrian economics sociopath can come up with your conclusions. Hey the economy is going down the drain. Doesn't matter! Government is shrinking! Bravo!"

only a brainwashed big government keysian fool would still believe that government spending can create growth despite the complete lack of evidence.

Keynesian persists not because of any form of supporting evidence but because governments love the power it gives them.

 
At 6/03/2011 3:54 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

"Yes you have Ron H and did a very good job of it too..."

Why, thank you :)

You know, I enjoy reading comments here because there are many different views, and I can learn from them. Some commentators, however, seem to say "Here's my view, and I don't want to read anything that might cast doubt on it. Don't confuse me with the facts."

The answer to the question posed by Mr. Meigs in the PopMech article, is usually something like "Oh, we'll just make cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass, and waste biomass."

Sounds simple enough, until you think to ask where all this switchgrass should be grown, or where all this waste biomass is currently just lieing around with no other uses. Opportunity costs are ignored.

Then, there's the screams from greenies to contend with, as they protest any interference with plants or animals most of us have never heard of, let alone seen.

The scale required to replace oil with biofuels just doesn't work. And, after all, oil is just previously concentrated biomass, nearly ready for our use.

I'm looking forward to seeing some realistic references from Rufus.

 
At 6/03/2011 3:57 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

"only a brainwashed big government keysian fool would still believe that government spending can create growth despite the complete lack of evidence.

Keynesian persists not because of any form of supporting evidence but because governments love the power it gives them.
"

*like*

Nails it!

 

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