Monday, April 04, 2011

Employment Trends Index Increases for 6th Month


The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) increased in March for the sixth month in a row. The March index rose to 100.9, up from 100.3 in February.  Compared to March last year, the ETI has increased by 8%.

Says Gad Levanon, Associate Director, Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board: “The Employment Trends Index started signaling acceleration in employment growth late last year, which we are now experiencing. In the last six months, employment excluding construction and state and local government has been growing faster than almost any other 6-month period in the past decade. We do not expect a turnaround in those sectors, which are still lagging, nor do we forecast acceleration in overall economic growth in the next several quarters. As a result, employment growth is likely to continue growing at its current rate and not improve further for the rest of 2011.”

9 Comments:

At 4/04/2011 10:27 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

I just hope this lasts for another 10 years.

 
At 4/05/2011 9:10 AM, Blogger Eric said...

The employment is growing slower than the eligible workforce population. The employment/ population ratio is lower than ever.

McDonald's jobs aren't keeping up with the unemployed "birth" rate. The trend still needs to increase just to get back to breaking even (and think about growing more to decrease the 15% of America on food stamps).

 
At 4/05/2011 9:36 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

eric-

my sentiments exactly.

this is not a jobs recovery and the unemployment number (u-3) dropping is just statistical charlatanry.

According to BLS, US employment has increased to 139,964k from 138,952k 12 months ago, an increase of 912k. Given population growth over the same period, this indicates a drop in the employment to population ratio from 58.6 to 58.5. This seems highly inconsistent with a recovery in employment. The entire purported drop in unemployment is the statistical artifact of a drop in the civilian workforce from 153,985k last year to 153,406k this year, a drop of 579k despite an increase in population of 1,841k over the same period.

 
At 4/05/2011 10:28 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

also:

ISM index just showed slowing employment growth.

 
At 4/05/2011 11:09 AM, Blogger Buddy R Pacifico said...

morganovich stated:

"ISM index just showed slowing employment growth."

This could be becuase of disruption in the supply of Japanese produced inputs.

 
At 4/05/2011 11:50 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

buddy-

"This could be becuase of disruption in the supply of Japanese produced inputs."

given that the non-manufacturing business activity index fell at 3X the rate of the manufacturing index (-7.2 vs -2.4) i would guess that the genesis of this decline lies predominantly outside the supply chain and likely has more to do with high food and energy prices, dropping consumer confidence, and weak real wages.

whole industries (like restaurants) are experiencing stagflation even using CPI as a deflator.

 
At 4/05/2011 12:18 PM, Blogger Buddy R Pacifico said...

morganovich, it is correct that inflation in food and energy is worrisome. It is way early to declare stagflation in industries such as restaurants. Are you aware that McDonald's is asking: "Would you like to supersize and have a McJob with that?" Hardly stagnant.

 
At 4/05/2011 1:11 PM, Blogger Eric said...

Do you think McDonald's Obamacare "free pass" has anything to do with their willingness to expand?

 
At 4/05/2011 1:32 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

buddy-

last month restaurant same store sales in the US were up 1.7% vs a 2.1% cpi and a 2.4% cpi food.

that is stagflation.

real output is down, but nominal is up due to inflation. this has been true for months.

what would you call it?

 

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