Real GDP Sets Record, Highest Gain Since 2005
CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Friday, March 25, 2011
About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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16 Comments:
Mark - if you look at personal consumption expenditures less gas, other energy goods, and cars, we're growing at the "new normal" of 3% nominal. Does this concern you that the US consumer really hasn't participated in this "GDP record"?
More evidence that the recovery is limited to public corporations and government, and that Main Street has been forsaken -- more at:
http://wjmc.blogspot.com/2010/07/main-street-depression-has-descended.html
The lop-sided recovery underway across the spells the end of Main Street capitalism in America...
1. that's still extremely tepid growth after a recession of this magnitude. we should be running at 5-7%, not 3. look at 1983-4 or even 1976 (which was not that deep a recession)
2. this data is only as good as the GDP deflator they used. it looks way out of line compared to unadjusted data. i think this number is significantly overstated.
Bernanke has to get nerves of steel, and really pour it on now.
No dithering or weakness, like the Bank of Japan.
Benji while sleeping:
"ZZZZZZZ....farm subsidies!....ZZZZZ....Japan!.....ZZZZZZZ.....corprolitic military!....ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ"
If the gov't doubled the supply of US dollars, wouldn't the stock market and GDP almost double but we would not be better off - in fact worse off? If correct, then the fact that GDP sets a record as measured with depreciated dollars, means nothing.
If there's one word to explain this historically slow economic recovery, after the severe recession, it's "equality."
Obama's Libya policy is similar to his domestic economic policy:
Degrade one side to create a level playing field, and eventually destroy the side being degraded (e.g. through a financial seige).
However, if the degradation doesn't result in destruction, a civil war may kill many more people, on both sides.
Paul-
At least I sleep. You, in contrast, are ever alert for my slightest appearance. What did you do before you discovered me?
I heard that all the NBA players moved to Peoria, and all the citizens were celebrating that the city was now significantly taller.
Another "soft-patch" similar to 2010?:
U.S. bumps up Q4 growth, seen slowing in early 2011
Mar 25, 2011
Another report showed consumers in March were their most downbeat in over a year as food and gasoline prices jumped.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index on consumer sentiment fell to 67.5 this month, the lowest since November 2009, from 68.2 in early March and 77.5 in February.
"First-quarter GDP is shaping up to be on the soft side," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
According to Sweet, data so far suggests growth in the first three months of 2011 was between 2.5 percent and 3 percent.
"On an annual basis, real GDP grew by 2.9% in 2010, the highest annual gain since a 3.05% increase in 2005, according to today's BEA report"...
From Streettalk Advisors: GDP And Profits - An Economic Malaise
Benji,
"What did you do before you discovered me?"
I rested much easier not knowing somebody like you is actually out there voting.
You are quite keen, Greg, in using the government's own upward biased statistics to support "a positive economic outlook" of economic growth (GDP), lower inflation (CPI), and lower unemployment.
I prefer the Shadow Government Statistics (SGA) analysis: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
The SGS-Alternate GDP reflects the inflation-adjusted, or real, year-to-year GDP change, adjusted for distortions in government inflation usage and methodological changes that have resulted in a built-in upside bias to official reporting ; currently at -2% vs the BEA's +3%.
The CPI chart on the home page reflects an estimate of inflation for today as if it were calculated the same way it was in 1990. The CPI on the Alternate Data Series tab reflects the CPI as if it were calculated using the methodologies in place in 1980. In general terms, methodological shifts in government reporting have depressed reported inflation, moving the concept of the CPI away from being a measure of the cost of living needed to maintain a constant standard of living. SGS inflation is currently at ~10%.
The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers. SGS unemployment is currently at ~22%.
The economy is much worse than the government wants you to think or know about.
-NS
If inflation was appropriately measured, i.e. fully adjusted, the recession that began in Dec '07 would've been averted.
The Fed was too cautious and too conservative.
Of course, something like Shadowstats is way behind the curve keeping up with and understanding a large dynamic macroeconomy.
Quote from PeakTrader: "If inflation was appropriately measured, i.e. fully adjusted, the recession that began in Dec '07 would've been averted."
Everything the Fed does causes recessions. They artificially inflate the money supply through endless credit expansion.
Fully adjusted, the recession began in 1913.
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