Two Dozen Bullish Charts: U.S. Economy is Strong
From Scott Grannis, who comments:
CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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7 Comments:
If oil rises to $150, there may be a double-dip, which could turn into a depression, since the country, along with most states, is in a position of weakness after two years of "Obamanomics."
If it lasts, oil price spike a threat to nascent economic recovery: economists
23 Feb, 2011
"Economists note that all recessions since the Second World War were preceded by spiking oil prices.
If oil remains at elevated levels for four or five months, that could filter through into higher inflation and cause central bankers to start raising interest rates.
Food prices have been rising for months, but recent unrest in the Middle East has also pushed oil to heights not seen since the lead-up to the previous recession."
"As should be evident, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong, and this is good reason to expect that the economy will continue to push ahead in spite of the headwinds it faces"...
Well I sure do hope so but there are those pesky externalities to consider...
Reality Bites Obama Supporting Economist in the Ass
"Reality Bites Obama Supporting Economist in the Ass"
No disagreement here, but the idea of calculating out beyond 75 years into the future reminds me of another group that believes they can predict the temperature that far away.
Just how the hell is this chart bullish again? If commodity prices continue to go up the bond market implodes and the deficit goes up sharply as debt service costs explode. I take it that the Califia Beach Pundit does not think that rising commodities and higher interest payments are going to be a problem.
What next Mark, how a nuclear war could be a positive for the economy?
It's not only the massive government spending spree that created $1.5 trillion annual budget deficits, it's also the recovery taking place at one-third speed after the severe recession.
Also, these huge deficits have taken place before the 80 million Baby-Boomers begin to retire.
Another oil shock, or any severe shock, will slow economic growth and worsen budget deficits.
There's little the government can do to stimulate the economy (e.g. significant tax cuts), if that becomes necessary.
There's little the government can do to stimulate the economy (e.g. significant tax cuts), if that becomes necessary.
For us to buy into a real and sustainable recovery we need to see everything go perfectly and every uncertainty to be resolved in our favour. This is why the naive optimists are going to be wrong just as they have been for the past decade.
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