Leading Index, NY Fed Predict Continued Growth
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators increased again in October, marking the fourth straight monthly gain in the gauge of future economic activity, and the 17th increase out of the last 19 months going back to April 2009 when the recession was winding down. Back-to-back monthly gains of 0.5% in the Leading Index in September and October suggest that the economic recovery will stay on track through the end of this year and continue to improve through next spring. According to the Conference Board, "the indicators are suggesting a mild pickup this spring."
In the last week, the Conference Board has also reported improvements in the leading indicators for China (+0.6%), U.K. (+0.3%) and Korea (0.8%), and declines for Spain (-0.1%) and Japan (+0.3%).
In another recent forecasting release for the U.S. from the NY Fed, its updated Treasury model through October continues to predict almost no chance of a recession through October of 2011.