Sunday, November 21, 2010

2010-2015 Could Be The Strongest Six-Year Period of World Real GDP Growth in a Generation

The International Monetary Fund is now predicting world real GDP growth this year of 4.6%, followed by 4.3% next year, and then 4.50% growth or above from 2012 to 2015.  If so, the 2010-2015 period would be the strongest growth for the world economy during a six-year period in at least 30 years (see chart above).  

17 Comments:

At 11/21/2010 11:50 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

The world is having a party, but evidently the US is not invited.

China and India are running hot on the money presses, with 10 percent plus increases in their money supplies. I guess that worked, although they have some inflation.

Maybe the US is an exhausted empire; we are spending $1 trillion a year on a coprolitic military-foreign-VA complex, sucking money out of the private jobs- and wealth-creating sector.

And when do we get out of Afghanistan? Maybe next we will pour a trillion or two dollars into another very important country, like Upper Volta.

 
At 11/22/2010 1:23 AM, Blogger rufus said...

Not. A. Chance. In. The. World.

 
At 11/22/2010 2:36 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

The government needs to make up its mind. The Fed is trying to start a bubble, while Obama is trying to stop a bubble (a gold bubble doesn't create much value, except generate dollars).

Also, it seems, U.S. defense spending as a percentage of GDP was twice as much in the 1960s than in the 2000s (perhaps, that helps explain the protests during Vietnam).

Moreover, it was higher in the 1950s than in the 1960s, and higher under Obama than Bush (Obama doesn't do anything cheap).

 
At 11/22/2010 7:15 AM, Blogger geoih said...

Quote from PeakTrader: "The government needs to make up its mind. The Fed is trying to start a bubble, while Obama is trying to stop a bubble (a gold bubble doesn't create much value, except generate dollars)."

Politics is a fine art. Remember that whenever you read anything from the government or their cheerleaders.

In a related story, I read where the whole world is going to be plunged into darkness as the trend in the amount of day light has been steadily decreasing for months.

 
At 11/22/2010 9:27 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

and we believe the IMF, who pretty much never gets anything right because...?

 
At 11/22/2010 10:09 AM, Blogger Hydra said...

This should give the conservation cult sustainability nightmares.

 
At 11/22/2010 10:11 AM, Blogger Hydra said...

"...the trend in the amount of day light has been steadily decreasing for months...."

==========================

Cute.

 
At 11/22/2010 1:33 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"This should give the conservation cult sustainability nightmares"...

Not hardly I would think since conservatives know that liberals lie like most people breathe...

Apparently the IMF either doesn't look at or ignores the Drudge Report...

 
At 11/22/2010 4:00 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

The International Monetary Fund is now predicting world real GDP growth this year of 4.6%, followed by 4.3% next year, and then 4.50% growth or above from 2012 to 2015.

How can that happen when the production of crude from existing oil wells is falling by more than 7% per year? If the IMF is right oil would be well north of $100 a barrel and gold will be over $2,500 as inflation takes off.

 
At 11/22/2010 4:00 PM, Blogger skh.pcola said...

Benjamin needs a new word to make himself feel that he sounds like he knows what he's talking about, since "coprolitic" and the permutations that he frequently drops here have become trite.

Ad hominems aside, I've been reading this blog for many years and the perma-bull focus is also trite. We could be in a full-blown economic meltdown and Prof. Perry would yet be trumpeting how peachy keen things are looking. There comes a time to acknowledge the forest, even if all that you can see is a tree. Now's that time. If, like the IMF, you see rainbows and unicorns in our future, you have blinders on and are in denial.

Any recovery that we might be (or might not be) seeing is an illusion.

 
At 11/22/2010 5:36 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

PCola: I had been using "fossilized dung" to describe federal agencies, but a clever reader pointed out that the single word "coprolite" filled the bill.

In my never-ending efforts to upgrade, I now go with "corprolite," or "corprolitic," to describe such federal agencies as the VA, USDA, Defense Department, HUD etc.

I believe I stand on ground as firm as, well, coprolite, when I use this word thusly.

Have you a better word? Pray tell.

 
At 11/22/2010 7:39 PM, Blogger sofa said...

We are witnessing the 'endarkenment'.

 
At 11/22/2010 8:07 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"We could be in a full-blown economic meltdown and Prof. Perry would yet be trumpeting how peachy keen things are looking"...

Hmmm, well skh.pcola I sometimes think that on the odd occassion maybe Professor Perry can be bit overly optimistic...

What I've found out though that over time Professor Perry tends to be a correct much more often than not in his calls...

Mind you I'm a bit more pessimistic about real GDP growth in the world than Professor Mark is but it won't suprise me one little bit if he turns out to be correct...

 
At 11/23/2010 3:09 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Juandos, the U.S. and E.U. economies are over 50% of world GDP.

The IMF prediction of 4 1/2% real growth is based on roughly 3% growth in developed countries and 7% growth in developing countries.

However (from article on U.S.):

"It takes about 3 percent (real) growth to create enough jobs just to keep up with the population increase. It would have to be about 5 percent for a full year just to drive the unemployment rate down 1 percentage point."

 
At 11/23/2010 9:17 AM, Blogger skh.pcola said...

Benji, "fossilized dung" would imply that federal agencies are inert and non-aspirational. What they really are, instead, is a form of parasitic rot, like necrotizing fasciitis. The difference being that flesh-eating bacteria eventually run out of flesh to eat, while our benevolent government metastasizes into all aspects of our lives, incrementally wearing down our collective economic health.

Juandos, in the long term, Prof. Perry will be correct. What's the (by now) old saying? "He's called 13 of the last two recoveries." He and Roubini are of the same cloth...just different ends of the bolt. I don't come here daily to get a jolt of pessimism, but eternal optimism in the face of wealth-destroying policies promulgated by Obama and his minions is irresponsible. We're never going to see the projected growth while we have regulatory uncertainties of the scale that we now have in the US. Magical thinking won't change that.

 
At 11/23/2010 1:14 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Mr. Cola-

Okay, necritizing fasciitis it is--our federal agencies at work!

I have to confess I still prefer "coprolitic." Something about describing federal agencies as "dung"....more accurately captures the spirit of what I wish to convey.

 
At 11/23/2010 3:17 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"...the U.S. and E.U. economies are over 50% of world GDP"...

Normally no doubt about PT but have you seen all that 'good news' pouring out of the EU lately?

Considering the amount of debt by some of the EU members their part in that '50%' area doesn't look like its going to happen this coming year...

 

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