Monday, September 13, 2010

Global Output Reaches All-Time High in June; World Economy in New Cycle of Economic Growth

According to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, world industrial production increased in June for the 15th straight month after declining in 11 out of 12 months between April 2008 and March 2009 (see chart above).  Compared to last June, world output has improved by 10.4% year-over-year, and June was the sixth consecutive month of double-digit percentage increase over the same month in 2009.  For the last two months, world production levels (135.1 in May and 135.3 in June) have been above the previous peak of 134.4 reached in March 2008, suggesting that there has been a complete recovery in world output from the global recession in 2008 and 2009. 

The same group also reported that the volume of merchandise world trade continued to show signs of improvements in June, following gains in 7 out of the previous 8 months (see chart below).  On a year-over-year basis, June's increase of 21.5% in merchandise world trade was the sixth straight double-digit percentage increase, and overall world trade in June (index = 159.3) is just 1.72% below the March 2008 peak of 162.1.  The world trade volume in June was at the highest level in 26 months, since April 2008.
   
Bottom Line: Based on the ongoing improvements in global production and world trade, especially the fact that global industrial production is now at an all-time historical high, I think we can safely say that that the world economy has made a complete recovery from the global slowdown in 2008 and 2009, and we're now in a new period of economic growth and expansion.   

4 Comments:

At 9/13/2010 1:52 PM, Blogger Steve said...

Global INDUSTRIAL output reaches all-time high.

But Industrial production is only 30% of Gross World Product - Services is 64%. (2009 CIA World Factbook)

Without a discussion of 64% of world economic output, how can one "safely say that that the world economy has made a complete recovery from the global slowdown in 2008 and 2009, and we're now in a new period of economic growth and expansion" ?

That may well be true, but this CPB.nl report does not state that conclusion, because it does not present that data.

 
At 9/13/2010 2:30 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Die, recession, die, die, die!

Now, if we can only get the USA to join the global parade.

What is China doing? Fiscal and monetary stimulus.

What is the US doing? Nothing.

 
At 9/13/2010 9:17 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

it's shame that the US is not in the vanguard anymore.

coming out of debt based recessions takes much longer than those based just on the business cycle. deleveraging is long and painful..

we're going to be sub trend for many years to come.

benny, if you think china is recovering due to stimulus, you're nuts.

stop asking for handouts and go produce something. the government is not the source of prosperity.

fiscal and monetary stimulus don't work in a deleveraging scenario.

the money just goes to savings rates and the currency/monetary debasement that results punishes the virtuous to bail out the profligate.

 
At 9/13/2010 10:12 PM, Blogger bix1951 said...

Expansion!!!

 

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