House Dems Will Take a Thumping in November
Intrade odds for Republicans to control the House after the November elections rose today to the highest level in the contract's history: 58.6% (see chart above). When Obama took office in January 2009, the Intrade odds were only 15% that the Republicans would control the House in 2010, and those odds have consistently risen and have been trading above 50% since late June.
In Michael Barone's latest column, he surveys the most recent polling data and writes that "most signs suggest Democrats will take a thumping this year." Michael concludes that:
"These metrics -- the generic ballot results and polls in individual districts -- suggest that House Democrats are headed toward historic losses. Quite a swing in 18 months."
In addition to the polling data, the "pay-to-play" futures contracts at Intrade support Barone's conclusion.