Monday, July 05, 2010

Dems Control House: From 62% to 46% in 46 Days

The Intrade odds for the Democrats to maintain control of the House of Representatives after the November elections have been trading below 50% for the last week, and the odds have fallen from 62% on May 21 to 46% today. 

6 Comments:

At 7/05/2010 1:16 PM, Blogger Dr William J McKibbin said...

If we assume that the Democrats lose control of the House of Reprentatives in the coming November elections, then the outcome will likely be status quo on important issues after the election. In other words, after the November mid-terms, immigration reform and stimulus spending will likely come to a halt. The only arena within which the Obama administration will continue to hold all the cards will be in Afghanistan where the commander-in-chief could order a withdrawal with or without the consent Congress. However, the Democrats are probably going to lose control of the Congress by the end of the year. If further stimulus spending is not enacted before the end of the year, then austerity regimes will become reality, for better or worse...

 
At 7/05/2010 1:36 PM, Blogger Paul said...

My big fear is the interim period between election day and the swearing in of the new Congress. The Democrats may try to implement much more of their destructive agenda on their way out the door, a big "F You!" to the productive class.

 
At 7/05/2010 1:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Consider that as corrupt as the Democrats are, this election could be a landslide victory for Dem candidates. The pollwatchers from the Black Panthers, SEIU, etc. will be out there in force.

 
At 7/05/2010 6:57 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Since shortly after Lehman failed in Sep '08, rather than facilitating economic growth and then taxing it, we've impeded growth and may end up taxing it even more.

A year from now, many Americans may be better off working zero hours and collecting unemployment benefits than working 40 hours a week for wages.

 
At 7/06/2010 2:56 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Dr William J McKibbin says: "If further stimulus spending is not enacted before the end of the year, then austerity regimes will become reality, for better or worse."

Past (fiscal) stimulus spending failed to generate a virtuous cycle of economic growth. So, how will more of the same do any good? It may dig an even deeper hole, and then what?

 
At 7/07/2010 9:06 AM, Blogger juandos said...

"In other words, after the November mid-terms, immigration reform and stimulus spending will likely come to a halt"...

One can only hope that's what will happen...

BTW is McKibben another Keynesian that hasn't figured it out as Peak Trander has pointed out regarding previous stimulus nonsense?

Maybe perusing some of Brian Riedl pieces would show that Keynesian is a real economy stopper...

 

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