Friday, July 02, 2010

June: 6th Double-Digit Increase in Car Sales

Auto sales increased in June by 14.4% compared to June last year, marking the sixth straight month of a double-digit percentage gain.

From the Detroit News, "All major automakers posted sales gains last month -- sales were up at 11.9% at GM, 13.4% at Ford and 35.4% at Chrysler -- and most also held their market share steady, with a few exceptions."

Also, as I reported yesterday, rail shipments of motor vehicles and equipment were up by 55.2 percent last week compared to the same month last year. 

18 Comments:

At 7/02/2010 4:20 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

A glass can be one-third full or two-thirds empty:

US new vehicle sales slowing, but still up in June
July 2nd, 2010

Sales for the first half of the year finished at 5.615 million (up 17 percent over 2009), with the latest projections estimating a total 2010 market of 11.1 million vehicles.

U.S. Auto Sales (new vehicles)

2002 16.8 million
2003 16.6 million
2004 16.9 million
2005 16.9 million
2006 16.5 million
2007 17.1 million
2008 14.1 million
2009 10.4 million

 
At 7/02/2010 4:56 PM, Blogger rjs said...

here's a chart to show total sold, rather than YoY % change, back to 1967:

http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/07/light-vehicle-sales-long-june-2010.html

 
At 7/02/2010 6:11 PM, Anonymous Benny the Freeloader said...

This is as low as auto sales in 1983 despite population growth in the intervening years.

This is a dead-cat bounce from record lows.

 
At 7/02/2010 6:26 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

RJS, on the bottom of your chart are links to other charts, e.g. "Light Vehicle Sales (short)." Also, "Long Term Unemployed" and "Fannie Mae Serious Delinquency Rate" look awful.

 
At 7/02/2010 8:17 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

I salute Mark for his relentless optimism.
The world needs optimists and optimism.
Pessimism is a self-fulfilling illness.

 
At 7/03/2010 12:04 AM, Anonymous grant said...

If the auto sales figures this year are higher than last year then that is an improvement in the number of vehicles sold.
The past sales figures before the meltdown are also irrelevant because they took place in a false inflated market and so don't so really count either at this time.

 
At 7/03/2010 1:48 AM, Blogger Ron H. said...

"If the auto sales figures this year are higher than last year then that is an improvement in the number of vehicles sold."

grant - yes, but notice that the chart shows % change yoy, and doesn't really say much about number of cars sold. see the chart rjs linked. It shows actual sales figures, and isn't such a cheery picture.

 
At 7/03/2010 2:50 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

So, the chart "Light Vehicle Sales (short)," i.e. monthly auto sales at annual rates, shows more of an L-shaped than V-shaped recovery.

Also, the "recovery" looks very uneven, in part, perhaps because of the many uncertainties created by government.

Earlier this year, many were predicting 12 million new auto sales in 2010, and almost everyone was predicting at least 11.5 million sales.

I stated before, this is a very expensive recovery, because the government has one foot on the accelerator and the other foot on the brake.

 
At 7/03/2010 10:04 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

So, the chart "Light Vehicle Sales (short)," i.e. monthly auto sales at annual rates, shows more of an L-shaped than V-shaped recovery.

No. It does not show a sustainable recovery yet. And there is plenty of other data to suggest that the recovery is artificial and totally unsustainable without a further correction or a reflation process that would create bigger long term problems for the US.

 
At 7/04/2010 6:39 AM, Anonymous grant said...

VangelV:
Unemployment looks like it is beginning to consolidate so this could be the key. The next unemployment numbers out could see the numbers dropping! I certainly hope so otherwise there could be shorts.
Would MP like to comment on this.

 
At 7/04/2010 6:42 AM, Anonymous grant said...

RON H:
Could tight credit be keeping the car sales numbers down?

 
At 7/04/2010 7:07 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

Unemployment looks like it is beginning to consolidate so this could be the key. The next unemployment numbers out could see the numbers dropping! I certainly hope so otherwise there could be shorts.'

Actually, before there can be a true recovery we need to see public employee numbers go down significantly and to see the zombie companies that are propped up by low cost of capital and government hand outs shut their doors. The idea is to have a real and lasting recovery, not to kick the can down the road for a few years.

It has been the Fed's reluctance to allow the market to liquidate bad investments that has created this problem. Doing more of the same will only make things worse.

 
At 7/04/2010 7:10 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

RON H:
Could tight credit be keeping the car sales numbers down?


Credit is not tight. Interest rates are near all time lows and you have the Fed monetizing bad debts. Rates should be twice their current levels if you want to save the USD and the real economy.

 
At 7/04/2010 11:18 AM, Anonymous grant said...

VangelV:
I think the unemployment numbers have to fall.There is no longer any choice.
No body wants to ride their horse into anarchy and pain and suffering and have to have to live through that great depression lifestyle you are chanting for gods sake.
I don't want it your way I think"bigger long term problems will be around the corner"if these unemployed numbers don't start to fall.
China has de pegged the yuan from the USD so yuan can revalue up or ""DOWN"".Other countries have or are devaluing.So the USD could be beginning to strengthen by default. Traders/investors will move into the USD interest rates[are falling] will fall.
Commodity prices are falling since March. Oil moving to downward trend headed to $55 maybe $50 NOT GOOD.
The really big problems ahead could be in the euro maybe a massive shaking to come.I'm going with the USD.not against it.
All i can say VangelV is you must love pain and there may be plenty of it ahead particularly in Asia and the third world.

 
At 7/04/2010 6:35 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

No body wants to ride their horse into anarchy and pain and suffering and have to have to live through that great depression lifestyle you are chanting for gods sake.

You are confused. If you want to see a sustained recovery we need to see the liquidation of bad investment that would destroy many jobs that are not supported by market demand.

The US had a major contraction after WW I that was worse than what we just went through. President Harding cut taxes and government spending. As a result, the malinvestments were liquidated and the economy recovered very rapidly. When we compare that to the meddling of Hoover and FDR we see that more spending and the prevention of the liquidation process turned a contraction into a Great Depression.

I don't want it your way I think"bigger long term problems will be around the corner"if these unemployed numbers don't start to fall.

As I said, history is on my side. When liquidation is permitted to occur contractions are deep and short. When they are not you get long depressions.

China has de pegged the yuan from the USD so yuan can revalue up or ""DOWN"".Other countries have or are devaluing.So the USD could be beginning to strengthen by default. Traders/investors will move into the USD interest rates[are falling] will fall.

Fiat currencies could strengthen against each other but money printing cannot create wealth and they will lose real purchasing power over time. This is not the time of gold backed money when contractions caused increases in general purchasing power. While I could see a collapse in the price of commercial real estate, housing, general equities, municipal bonds, etc., prices for essentials will go up.

 
At 7/04/2010 6:35 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

Commodity prices are falling since March. Oil moving to downward trend headed to $55 maybe $50 NOT GOOD.

I suggest that you look at the BP Statistical Review document, which was just released. It shows that global oil production declined by 2.6% and global natural gas production fell by 2.1% in 2009. The diversion of food to fuel has reduced the weeks in storage inventory to record low levels leaving the global supply vulnerable to external climate factors. We are one extreme precipitation or early frost event from crisis.

A collapse in demand could bring down prices to low levels for a short period of time but the problem on the supply side would make such declines opportunities for patient investors looking for low risk opportunities.

The really big problems ahead could be in the euro maybe a massive shaking to come.I'm going with the USD.not against it.

Both fiat currencies are a bad bet over the longer term. California is bankrupt and is a much bigger problem than Greece. Many of the other states are not much better. The federal government is running massive deficits that are so large that Congress has refused to pass the budget. The cost of the Afghan and Iraqi adventures are off balance sheet and the unfunded liabilities are running north of $85 trillion.

All i can say VangelV is you must love pain and there may be plenty of it ahead particularly in Asia and the third world.

Sorry but I don't see it the same way as you do. The last time I was in Asia it was doing much better than the US. The airports were newer and much better. So were the highways, bridges, etc. New housing was being built for the millions flooding into cities each year. Companies were looking for engineers and skilled workers and pay was rising. Food was much more plentiful than ever before and people who could not have dreamed of motorcycles not too long ago were lining up to pay for new cars. (In cash.)

I see the US as being in the same place as Britain was around the time of the Boer War. It was still a dominant power but looking old and tired and clearly on its way down relative to other nations. While the collapse did not come quickly the decline was steady and by the time it was over England was a failed state looking to get bailed out by the IMF. If there is a miracle voters will see the light and reject the statists that have taken the nation on a path to ruin. If, you are lucky the US will follow a similar path as the UK. If not you will see a massive collapse that will begin when the municipal bond market is crushed by the market or bailed out by the Fed. Either way, I would be looking for declines in the price of gold as a major opportunity. If you did not buy before, as many realists did, I suggest that you buy some before prices head to $2,000. I would be looking to redeploy the profits when an ounce would buy you half the Dow.

 
At 7/04/2010 6:36 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

Commodity prices are falling since March. Oil moving to downward trend headed to $55 maybe $50 NOT GOOD.

I suggest that you look at the BP Statistical Review document, which was just released. It shows that global oil production declined by 2.6% and global natural gas production fell by 2.1% in 2009. The diversion of food to fuel has reduced the weeks in storage inventory to record low levels leaving the global supply vulnerable to external climate factors. We are one extreme precipitation or early frost event from crisis.

A collapse in demand could bring down prices to low levels for a short period of time but the problem on the supply side would make such declines opportunities for patient investors looking for low risk opportunities.

The really big problems ahead could be in the euro maybe a massive shaking to come.I'm going with the USD.not against it.

Both fiat currencies are a bad bet over the longer term. California is bankrupt and is a much bigger problem than Greece. Many of the other states are not much better. The federal government is running massive deficits that are so large that Congress has refused to pass the budget. The cost of the Afghan and Iraqi adventures are off balance sheet and the unfunded liabilities are running north of $85 trillion.

All i can say VangelV is you must love pain and there may be plenty of it ahead particularly in Asia and the third world.

Sorry but I don't see it the same way as you do. The last time I was in Asia it was doing much better than the US. The airports were newer and much better. So were the highways, bridges, etc. New housing was being built for the millions flooding into cities each year. Companies were looking for engineers and skilled workers and pay was rising. Food was much more plentiful than ever before and people who could not have dreamed of motorcycles not too long ago were lining up to pay for new cars. (In cash.)

I see the US as being in the same place as Britain was around the time of the Boer War. It was still a dominant power but looking old and tired and clearly on its way down relative to other nations. While the collapse did not come quickly the decline was steady and by the time it was over England was a failed state looking to get bailed out by the IMF. If there is a miracle voters will see the light and reject the statists that have taken the nation on a path to ruin. If, you are lucky the US will follow a similar path as the UK. If not you will see a massive collapse that will begin when the municipal bond market is crushed by the market or bailed out by the Fed. Either way, I would be looking for declines in the price of gold as a major opportunity. If you did not buy before, as many realists did, I suggest that you buy some before prices head to $2,000. I would be looking to redeploy the profits when an ounce would buy you half the Dow.

 
At 7/04/2010 6:36 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

Commodity prices are falling since March. Oil moving to downward trend headed to $55 maybe $50 NOT GOOD.

I suggest that you look at the BP Statistical Review document, which was just released. It shows that global oil production declined by 2.6% and global natural gas production fell by 2.1% in 2009. The diversion of food to fuel has reduced the weeks in storage inventory to record low levels leaving the global supply vulnerable to external climate factors. We are one extreme precipitation or early frost event from crisis.

A collapse in demand could bring down prices to low levels for a short period of time but the problem on the supply side would make such declines opportunities for patient investors looking for low risk opportunities.

The really big problems ahead could be in the euro maybe a massive shaking to come.I'm going with the USD.not against it.

Both fiat currencies are a bad bet over the longer term. California is bankrupt and is a much bigger problem than Greece. Many of the other states are not much better. The federal government is running massive deficits that are so large that Congress has refused to pass the budget. The cost of the Afghan and Iraqi adventures are off balance sheet and the unfunded liabilities are running north of $85 trillion.

All i can say VangelV is you must love pain and there may be plenty of it ahead particularly in Asia and the third world.

Sorry but I don't see it the same way as you do. The last time I was in Asia it was doing much better than the US. The airports were newer and much better. So were the highways, bridges, etc. New housing was being built for the millions flooding into cities each year. Companies were looking for engineers and skilled workers and pay was rising. Food was much more plentiful than ever before and people who could not have dreamed of motorcycles not too long ago were lining up to pay for new cars. (In cash.)

I see the US as being in the same place as Britain was around the time of the Boer War. It was still a dominant power but looking old and tired and clearly on its way down relative to other nations. While the collapse did not come quickly the decline was steady and by the time it was over England was a failed state looking to get bailed out by the IMF. If there is a miracle voters will see the light and reject the statists that have taken the nation on a path to ruin. If, you are lucky the US will follow a similar path as the UK. If not you will see a massive collapse that will begin when the municipal bond market is crushed by the market or bailed out by the Fed. Either way, I would be looking for declines in the price of gold as a major opportunity. If you did not buy before, as many realists did, I suggest that you buy some before prices head to $2,000. I would be looking to redeploy the profits when an ounce would buy you half the Dow.

 

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