Saturday, May 08, 2010

Kauffman Survey of Economics Bloggers for QII

From the Kauffman Foundation:

America’s top economics bloggers represent a diverse group of writers with wide-ranging intellectual and political vantage points on one of the most important issues of the day—the economy. As independent thinkers who are immersed in discourse through the innovation of blogging, these economics writers have a unique voice and perspective, and potentially profound influence. The Kauffman Foundation is tapping their insights in a series of surveys called Kauffman Economic Outlook: A Quarterly Survey of Leading Economics Bloggers.

Economics bloggers have a balanced outlook on the U.S. economy in this quarter (second quarter 2010), with 59 percent saying that conditions are mixed, and the rest evenly split between positive and negative views. For an economy in which growth is the norm, 36 percent of respondents think that the U.S. economy is worse than official statistics indicate, and only 14 percent believe it is better. Regardless, the consensus three-year projection sees moderate growth in all areas: Gross Domestic Product, employment, inflation, and budget deficits. Fastest growth is expected in real interest rates.

Read
full report here.

12 Comments:

At 5/08/2010 4:10 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

I wonder how they concluded "Skepticism about official statistics
remains the rule" to the question "Is the U.S. economy doing better or worse than official government statistics show?"

Also, where are tax cuts and decrease government spending to the question "The U.S. federal government should ..." (select one or more)?

Moreover, the highest GPA for the listed institutions is 2.28. I wonder what they think the U.S. business community, the Fed, or Wall Street should do to receive at least a 3.00.

 
At 5/08/2010 6:14 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Mark Thoma:

"I also think that saving will be higher and, hence, consumption will be lower—the question is what will replace the lost consumption. I don’t expect net exports to grow enough to make up the difference, government will grow some, but that won’t be enough either, so that leaves investment. But investment in what? That’s the trillion dollar question."

In the U.S., taxes will replace consumption or saving/investment. Also, saving will be squandered on government-led investments. However, demand for commodities, e.g. food, oil, copper, etc., will remain strong, because developing economies will continue to expand at faster rates than developed economies.

Given Americans haven't saved enough for retirement, taxes will rise, and Social Security will be cut, more speculative investments may take place (e.g. biotech or alternative energy). Anyway, Americans will be forced to work longer, which will add to future economic growth, ceteris paribus.

 
At 5/08/2010 11:15 PM, Anonymous grant said...

Here we go! Jaundo's some health care figures for a man on your single income of 5 million dollars you will pay $285.000 but if you are married the couple contribution is $287.000 so only $2000 more if you have a wife. Now that is extremely generous of Obama and very good value. Marriage pays heres proof.
Then again if you are not that successful and only earn $350.000 then you only pay $2,700.00 Obama care levy plus your usual IRS.
If you want to check up then just flip through the 2.300 page legislation to see if you are exempted and don't have to pay.

 
At 5/08/2010 11:31 PM, Anonymous grant said...

PT? I have been going through your previous mention on immigration and is this stunning stuff.The civil war did not affect the birthrate measureabley in modern history. So I don't agree with you on that. This is a deep seated problem and and taking time to research but it is absolutely riveting stuff.

 
At 5/09/2010 3:36 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Grant, a significant proportion of the U.S. population died in the Civil War (from war and disease). An even larger percentage were males, and an even larger proportion were young males (Also, during the Great Depression, the birth rate declined).

American Civil War
Wikipedia:

"Based on 1860 census figures, 8% of all white males aged 13 to 43 died in the war, including 6% in the North and an extraordinary 18% in the South."

 
At 5/09/2010 3:56 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

I stated before, in the 2000s, Wall Street created and captured enormous real wealth in the global economy, distributed that wealth to the U.S. masses, and diversified the risk globally.

It's possible, the stock market rally over the past year did more to spur economic growth than monetary and fiscal policies. So, Wall Street (and the New York Stock Exchange) may deserve at least a 3.50 GPA.

Also, I stated before, the U.S. has been a "black hole" in the global economy, attracting imports and capital. However, the U.S. government has been a black hole in the U.S. economy, which is becoming more powerful.

 
At 5/09/2010 1:31 PM, Anonymous grant said...

PT? OK thanks I will look into that but I still think that the population problem of modern times started in the 1960's.

 
At 5/09/2010 9:11 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

>"PT? OK thanks I will look into that but I still think that the population problem of modern times started in the 1960's."

Grant, I've apparently missed some earlier discussion about this. If you don't mind my asking, what is the population problem of modern times?.

 
At 5/10/2010 12:30 PM, Anonymous geoih said...

So, statistically, the "average" economist's opinion is no more representative than a wild guess. And yet, government planning of the economy continues.

 
At 5/10/2010 6:14 PM, Anonymous grant said...

RON H?I don't know but we are going to apply for tarp funds to research it.Should be a snap! One call to helicopter Ben for a quick drop should fix it.

 
At 5/10/2010 9:23 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

>"RON H?I don't know but we are going to apply for tarp funds to research it.Should be a snap! One call to helicopter Ben for a quick drop should fix it."

Thanks, Grant, that was really helpful.

 
At 5/10/2010 9:49 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

>"So, statistically, the "average" economist's opinion is no more representative than a wild guess. And yet, government planning of the economy continues."

That sums it up pretty nicely. Worse yet, those involved in government planning of the economy, naturally enough tend to favor those discredited Keynesian ideas that call for extensive government interference in the economy.

 

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