Friday, May 07, 2010

Four-Month Job Increase Highest in Ten Years

According to Table A for the Household Data in today's BLS employment report (historical data here), civilian employment based on the household survey increased by 550,ooo jobs in April, the largest monthly increase since a 598,000 increase in November 2007. Over the last four months, employment has increased by 1,663,000 jobs, which is the largest four-month job increase in exactly ten years, going back to a 2.7 million four-month employment increase in the first four months of 2000 (see chart above).

41 Comments:

At 5/07/2010 9:37 AM, Blogger John said...

What, no Obama bashers this morning?

 
At 5/07/2010 9:50 AM, Blogger bobble said...

from calculated risk.

job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms

 
At 5/07/2010 9:57 AM, Blogger James Fraasch said...

From Calculated Risk:

Although the headline number of 290,000 payroll jobs was a positive (this is 224,000 after adjusting for the 66,000 Census 2010 temporary hires), the underlying details were mixed. The positives: the employment-population ratio increased (after plunging sharply), and average hours increased.

Negatives include the unemployment rate increasing to 9.9%, a near record number of part time workers (for economic reasons) pushing U-6 to 17.1%, and a record number of workers unemployed for more than 26 weeks.


People unemployed over 26 weeks is at an all time high. It's going to take a while to work off the supply of workers.

I agree. It was a good news/bad news report. The worst of the news is those being unemployed for so long keeps increasing.

Part timers will go to full time status before massive hiring starts.

James

 
At 5/07/2010 10:28 AM, Anonymous Subset said...

Wow, that chart shows so many blue bars under water it will take several years of the last 4-month increase to erase it.

But we all know the latest 4-month blue bar is overstated.

We all know it is not sustainable in the current economic environment.

We all know that even if the economy is in a rather rapid recovery it will take four to five years to burn off this unemployment. We all know we're not going to have sustained 6-7% GDP growth so that projection is optimistic.

We all know the massive deficits NOW are going to result in tax increases SOON which will stifle any recovery.

We all know there are many weak factors in the economy which could turn things downward in a big way, like failing banks, CRE defaults, a collapse of China's housing market bubble, a failing EU, the impending recast of Option ARMS and Alt-A loans, etc.

Well, almost all of us.

 
At 5/07/2010 11:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Now, divide all the private sector jobs created by the nearly $4 trillion in stimulus and subsidy programs and ... Well, you get the picture.

 
At 5/07/2010 12:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

A U-6 figure that converges toward the official rate could indicate improving confidence in the labor market and the overall economy. This month pushes convergence even further away.

Broader U-6 Unemployment Rate Increases to 17.1% in April, WSJ

 
At 5/07/2010 12:29 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"What, no Obama bashers this morning?"...

Would a Geithner bashing suffice?

 
At 5/07/2010 12:32 PM, Blogger sethstorm said...


People unemployed over 26 weeks is at an all time high. It's going to take a while to work off the supply of workers.

To think of what happens to said long-term unemployed. It may require a law to remove that from the table (whether it is done by direct or indirect means) and get an actual decrease.

Either way, it would be a very good time to start killing off programs that don't hire US citizens. Then make sure those aren't permatemp jobs.

But then that would get rid of the crisis.

 
At 5/07/2010 12:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gotta get me one of those gov'ment jobs

 
At 5/07/2010 12:44 PM, Blogger juandos said...

bobble says: "Either way, it would be a very good time to start killing off programs that don't hire US citizens"...

Hmmm, interesting point bobble, I wonder if Arizona feels like that?

 
At 5/07/2010 12:58 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Over at ZeroHedge Tyler Durden writes: Fake +290K Payrolls "Added", Real Number Is 36K After Census And Birth-Death, Unemployment Goes Back To 9.9%, Underemployment At 17.1%

 
At 5/07/2010 1:03 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"A good guess…is that when the economy recovers five years from now, one in six men who are 25 to 54 will not be working," Lawrence Summers, the president's economic adviser, said the other day ... The government, Mr. Summers said, can increase demand for labor in the short run. Spending more public money on infrastructure, he argued, will both strengthen the economy for the future and employ out-of-work construction workers ... A third option is surrender to market forces and tax the winners to subsidize the losers."

Meet the Unemployable Man, WSJ

Teachers unions have made sure that whole generations of Americans are "unemployable", perfect grist for the socialist mill. Make no mistake, the Democrats are committed to the third option.

 
At 5/07/2010 1:28 PM, Anonymous morganovich said...

juandos-

that's a good find.

that massive impact from the birth/death adjustment would certainly help explain how U-6 can go up concurrent with a surge in payrolls.

that had been making me suspicious.

 
At 5/07/2010 1:40 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Hey morganovich, I was perusing Uncomon Misconceptions and found the following: Recovery? Hah! Just Oscillating Unemployment Claims...

Then I started looking at other sites and this theme regarding these unemployment numbers and its quite a common theme...

Well you know what they say: 'figures lie and liars figure'...:-)

 
At 5/07/2010 2:43 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Die, recession, die, die, die.

Right now, we are afraid of phantasms. Debt. Credit, derivatives and leverage. It is silly. Credit exists only in our imagination.

We have our infrastructure, our (subsidized) farms, our factories, our tremendous and huge pool of skilled and unskilled labor. Tons of incredible R&D shops, and venture capitalists.
There is nothing to prevent us from obtaining ever higher living standards. In the real world, that is.

Except a feeble, weakling financial system.

Again, I beseech Dr. Perry: If you want to make a contribution during your sabbatical at AEI, devise a way to create a rock-solid financial system that does not crater when pinged by a few small stones.

If all economic players--investors, workers, developers--know that our financial system is rock-solid, the resulting confidence would result in a perma-boom.

Or, Dr. Perry, you could spend your sabbatical sniping at Al Gore.

 
At 5/07/2010 3:13 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"Or, Dr. Perry, you could spend your sabbatical sniping at Al Gore"...

pseudo benny redfining the word 'embarrassment'...

Sad...

 
At 5/07/2010 3:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

No Obama bashers because they have all been censored after this weeks stock market plunge. I suppose thats fair enough on an educational site. But it does not change the situation.

 
At 5/07/2010 4:04 PM, Blogger Paul said...

Benji The Arbiter of All Things Milton Friedman:

"Credit exists only in our imagination."

Was that in "Free to Choose?" I must have missed that chapter.


"Or, Dr. Perry, you could spend your sabbatical sniping at Al Gore."

Benji The True Economic Conservative won't tolerate negativity toward his boyfriend's fellow shakedown artists.

 
At 5/07/2010 4:27 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Paul-
Credit--can you see it? Taste it? Feel it?
And yet, our financial system collapsed, with dire real, world economic results. Real economic output and physical activity goes down.

Surely, an objective outsider would find such a "system' to be stupid, laughable.

BTW, I never post personally negative comments about your posts. Why all the bile? I have a devotion to true classical economics, and some different points of view than you. Is that a cause for such foul commentary?

 
At 5/07/2010 4:37 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"No Obama bashers because they have all been censored after this weeks stock market plunge"...

Really?

 
At 5/07/2010 5:19 PM, Blogger sethstorm said...

Another option is on the demand side: Force employers to be less efficient so they have to hire more, or limit imports of goods that threaten jobs of less educated, prime-wage men -- solutions with unwelcome side effects.

This option, and have it done yesterday.

It deals with the folks who want to resist hiring US citizens, by removing said ability.

 
At 5/07/2010 5:25 PM, Anonymous grant said...

"The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency. By a continuing orocess of inflation,governments can confiscate secretly and unobserved an important part of the wealth of their citizens"
John Maynard Keynes

 
At 5/07/2010 6:18 PM, Blogger OA said...

Well John, how about comparing page 5 of the Romer/Bernstein justification for the stimulus plan before passing judgment.

http://otrans.3cdn.net/45593e8ecbd339d074_l3m6bt1te.pdf

 
At 5/07/2010 6:47 PM, Blogger juandos said...

How about the attempt to rewrite history as shown on page 3 of the Romer/Bernstein justification ?

Note the years 2001 through 2008...

Why?

Bush tax cuts maybe?

More money in the private sector means more investment...

BTW how come Romer and Bernstein never ask the question: "who pays?"...

 
At 5/07/2010 7:24 PM, Blogger Paul said...

Benji,

"Credit--can you see it? Taste it? Feel it?"

You can pay it, or end up like Greece. The nitwit you voted for is doing his damnedest to land us in the same situation.

"I have a devotion to true classical economics, and some different points of view than you."

Yes, you're a pure of heart True Economic Conservative Obama Voter, while the rest of us Red State Socialists are greedy hypocrites frequently committing heresies against Milton Friedman's holy writ.

 
At 5/07/2010 9:46 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

>"To think of what happens to said long-term unemployed. It may require a law to remove that from the table (whether it is done by direct or indirect means) and get an actual decrease."

Sethstorm, Does this mean you are in favor of making it illegal to be unemployed for a long period of time? If so, I'm all in favor.

 
At 5/07/2010 9:52 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

>"I have a devotion to true classical economics..."

Who is this? Who is signing on as Benji?

Now, if I were juandos, I would say ROFLMAO

 
At 5/07/2010 10:08 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

>"Yes, you're a pure of heart True Economic Conservative Obama Voter, while the rest of us Red State Socialists are greedy hypocrites frequently committing heresies against Milton Friedman's holy writ."

And unashamedly accepting federal farm subsidies.

 
At 5/07/2010 10:48 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

See Michelle Bachman and farm subsidies. She took 250k worth in just a few years.

BTW, any hope for a Sarah Palin-Michelle Bachman ticket in 2012?

 
At 5/08/2010 1:11 AM, Blogger sethstorm said...


Sethstorm, Does this mean you are in favor of making it illegal to be unemployed for a long period of time? If so, I'm all in favor.

Not in the way you suggest. That would make it worse. The idea is to remove the classification from the table.

See my previous demand-side reply. The idea would be to get rid of the idea that they are "damaged goods" by removing it (and any indirect indicators) from consideration.

That, and temporary work(and/or other forms of bad-faith adherence to regulation) doesn't count.

 
At 5/08/2010 2:56 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Jobless benefits expiring may explain much of the higher unemployment rate and more jobs.

April 2010

"More than 11 million jobless workers are collecting some form of unemployment benefits, including nearly 5.7 million receiving extensions, according to the National Employment Law Project."

 
At 5/08/2010 3:35 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Or people believe there are more jobs out there than before.

 
At 5/08/2010 4:19 AM, Anonymous grant said...

OA you didn't get it.
Signed John

 
At 5/08/2010 8:43 AM, Blogger Paul said...

"And unashamedly accepting federal farm subsidies."

Me? I don't even live on a farm.

 
At 5/08/2010 8:45 AM, Blogger Paul said...

"See Michelle Bachman and farm subsidies. She took 250k worth in just a few years."


Hey Benji, you could be doing the work of a True Economic Conservative, or you could spend your time sniping at Michelle Bachman.

 
At 5/08/2010 9:55 AM, Blogger Ron H. said...

Paul @ 08:43

I was just poking fun @ Benji by adding that line to your comment, knowing how Benji feels about farm subsidies.

>"[we]...are greedy hypocrites frequently committing heresies against Milton Friedman's holy writ...

...And unashamedly accepting federal farm subsidies."

 
At 5/08/2010 1:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

No Obama bashing? Who needs to bash him, his socialist policies do it for him. All the Obama backers are basing their case on fictional government statistics published and controlled by hundreds of thousands newly hired Obama minions. If you want to look at actual statistics that show the true state of this economy go to shadowstats.com. In the construction world, the unemployement rate is over 50%. Anyone in the actual working world outside the government knows this is a humpty dumpty economy and the crap the press is spewing belongs in the same fairy tale.

 
At 5/09/2010 1:55 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

But we all know
But we all know
But we all know
But we all know
But we all know

Argumentative fallacy. Appeal to belief.

 
At 5/09/2010 2:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Teachers unions have made sure that whole generations of Americans are "unemployable"


If teachers unions could actually do that then they would be one of the most effective and most powerful conspiracy brokers anywhere.


Argumentative fallacy. Appeal to fear.

 
At 5/09/2010 2:03 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Me? I don't even live on a farm.

I live on a farm, and like the vast majority of farmers, I get no subsidies either.

 
At 5/09/2010 7:15 PM, Blogger Paul said...

"I live on a farm, and like the vast majority of farmers, I get no subsidies either."

Benji thinks you're all a bunch of deadbeats, coddled like newborns. Of course, Benji has probably never stepped foot on a real farm and seen how hard the average farmer works.

 

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