Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Update: Texas vs. the Unionocracy of California

Update on this CD post:

The chart above displays employment levels in California compared to Texas, monthly from January 2000 to December 2009. The employment level in California fell below 16 million jobs in December for the first time since May 2000, 9 and-a-half years ago. From the peak employment level of more than 17 million in July 2007, California has lost more than one million jobs in the last two and-a-half years. In contrast, Texas has lost only about 100,000 jobs from the peak level in December 2008.

The chart below displays monthly government and private sector employment in California from January 2000, showing that most of the job losses have taken place in the private sector. From the 2007 peak, private sector employment has fallen by 1,133,000 jobs through December 2009 to the lowest level since November 1999, more than ten years ago, compared to a loss of only 57,000 government jobs from the peak in 2008.


As George Will wrote in January:

"California, a laboratory of liberalism, is spiraling downward, driven by a huge budget deficit. It took years for compassionate liberalism to make California's welfare menu contribute to the state becoming an importer of Mexico's poverty. It took years for servile liberalism to turn the state into a "unionocracy," run by and for unionized public employees, such as public safety employees who can retire at 50 and receive 90 percent of the final year's pay for life. California's economy is being suffocated by the weight of government."


Exhibit A: More than a million jobs lost in California's private sector, shrinking private sector employment to the lowest level since 1999. And those jobs disappeared fast - it took about nine years to add one million private-sector jobs in California, and only about two years for those million jobs to vanish.

16 Comments:

At 2/17/2010 5:46 AM, Blogger juandos said...

So is there any sort of rule of thumb to calculate how many private sector jobs are lost, under employed or under paid to support a single job in government work?

Bloomberg News video clip: David Walker Says U.S. on `Same Path' as Greece: Video

 
At 2/17/2010 5:59 AM, Blogger Tim Schilling said...

Not to be picky, but the scale at the bottom of each graph seems to indicate the data is quarterly, not monthly. Regardless, interesting trend.

 
At 2/17/2010 7:34 AM, Blogger brodero said...

Ok starting now.......I will take
California and you can have Texas,,,,and let's check back in 2 years....

 
At 2/17/2010 7:52 AM, Blogger juandos said...

"Ok starting now.......I will take California"...

Take California where?

Court rules against furlough orders

Schwarzenegger this year forced most state employees to take three days off a month without pay as the state faced a massive budget deficit. The mandatory furloughs, which began in February and were extended over the summer, affected about 200,000 state workers and were expected to save the state $2 billion.

California's debt rating cut again on budget woes

Scrambling to close a $20-billion budget gap, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has proposed a number of one-time fixes -- including having Uncle Sam pony up nearly $7 billion in federal aid. Yet the state’s chief budget analyst believes the odds of getting that much help from the U.S. are “almost nonexistent.”

TransUnion: Surprising increase in souring mortgages

The rate of homeowners falling behind on mortgage payments surged unexpectedly in the fourth quarter, with home loans 60 or more days past due reaching 6.9% of all home loans nationally, 11.0% in California and a whopping 18.5% in Riverside County, according to a study released Tuesday by credit reporting firm TransUnion...

 
At 2/17/2010 8:02 AM, Blogger brodero said...

You are looking in the rear view mirror....

 
At 2/17/2010 8:25 AM, Blogger James Fraasch said...

Brodero may be on to something if CA elects a governor of the ilk of Christie in New Jersey.

Freeze pay, freeze pensions, stop paying schools money when they have surpluses and maybe CA can grow out of this.

But I think two years is too short a window. I put the over/under at 5 years. Staring at another $20 billion hole to close for this year and next puts CA behind the 8 ball.

But if they file for BK, then they might just grow like gangbusters. Anyone know if they CAN file for bankruptcy?

James

 
At 2/17/2010 8:30 AM, Blogger sethstorm said...

Texas? What foreign interest doesn't control that state?

 
At 2/17/2010 9:25 AM, Blogger juandos said...

"You are looking in the rear view mirror...."...

I doubt it brodero but hey, you could be right... I'm curious as to your reasoning...

"if CA elects a governor of the ilk of Christie in New Jersey"...

Hmmm, correct me if I'm mistaken here but didn't the governator try that whole 'Christie thingie' a few years ago and met with no success in Sacramento?

Governator tries again...

Another blindingly silly statement from sethstorm?

"Texas? What foreign interest doesn't control that state?"...

You may be right but it sure would be interesting if you had something credible to show for it...

 
At 2/17/2010 9:39 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Did you control for oil/chemical industry and support mix in comparing California to Texas?

Natural resource economics, including severance tax payments, explain alot about Texas.

Living on the price of high priced oil.

 
At 2/17/2010 9:49 AM, Anonymous Grinch Kalikimaka said...

Has your pair of CA-TX graphs proved that CA has most of the private jobs whereas TX has most of the government jobs? Military and camp follower jobs?

 
At 2/17/2010 9:56 AM, Blogger James Fraasch said...

Yes, the Governator tried an failed to do what Christie has done by using executive power.

The legislature in CA simply would not along with the required cuts. That's why it didnt work out so well and why they have another gaping hole today.

If it is not that, then why would you think CA has the potential to outperform TX over the next two years? W/O a BK or a new fiscally responsible Governor, there is no immediate way out of the mess. Is your argument based more on the potential of CA or expected troubles in TX?

James

 
At 2/17/2010 10:39 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just an opinion, here, but I think CA (meaning the democrats who control the state legislature and unions) believes, due to its now decades long democrat leanings and large population (meaning electoral votes), that Obama-Pelosi-Reid will ultimately bail it out. It will be interesting to see how Obama-Pelosi-Reid respond and, if they orchestrate a bail out, what the other 49 states will demand and get.

 
At 2/17/2010 7:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Governator tried a few years ago to limit spendig but after being beaten down by the unions backed off and is now on his Global Warning crusade. Sadly, that might make things worse for the job outlook in Calfornia. Many employers in the construction and trucking industries are looking at major costs for implementing AB32 as well as rules approved by the Air Resources Board, both of which are potentially large job killers.

 
At 2/17/2010 9:01 PM, Blogger sethstorm said...


You may be right but it sure would be interesting if you had something credible to show for it...


1. The porous border with Mexico.
2. The illegal immigration(not just Mexico) that is ignored by convenience or used as leverage against US citizens.
3. The willingness of Texas to allow foreign countries (indirect) influence in government by virtue of business relations. I personally draw the line where they use legal maneuvering to make up for not being a citizen of the US and not being a constituent of a state/commonwealth; catering to them specifically is (in my opinion) selling the sovereignty of that state.

--

What to speak of their legal system? Is it just the Dallas area, or is that state that overly friendly with the legal profession? It's something I've noticed during my occasional visits to that area.

 
At 2/17/2010 11:13 PM, Blogger Brittanicus said...

Talk about self inflicted wounds? Should the rigid immigration laws pass in the state of Arizona? Look out California--THE SANCTUARY STATE.Currently so many other states are teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, because of the illegal alien invasion. Millions upon millions of more decrepit, desperate illegal immigrant families will be heading your way? Think of it! Your utra-Liberal assembly ruling the roost in Sacramento, will have to borrow even more money from Communist China, just as our derelict political old mens club in Washington have done Your need to loan that extra cash, with astronomical interest to pay for even more "Anchor Babies" welfare. Be assured Illegal aliens know all the loop holes, to get at all that public welfare cash. and government entitlements. Arizona said enough is enough and while their own congregations of poverty stricken population, have have been cut back (just as California) on welfare subsidies to share with illegal immigrant families. The people of Arizona frustrated with the lying garbage from Washington, have taken their immigration laws into their own hands at last, while California still dishes out billions of dollars a year. We are told illegal aliens don't get food stamps, low Income housing or many other government entitlements. Why do you think Pregnant women sneak across the border, to siphon off taxpayers dollars.

* The Urban Institute estimates that the cost of educating an estimated 800,000 illegal alien school children in the nation's seven states with the highest concentration of illegals was $3.1 billion in 1993 (extrapolated to $4.6 billion in 1996 by FAIR), but this estimate does not at all take into account the additional costs of bilingual education or other special educational needs.
* It is estimated that the number of children born to illegal aliens each year is 165,000. This figure is based on the crude birth rate of the total foreign-born population (33 birth per 1000) and the size of the illegal alien population (five million).
* In 1994, California paid for 74,987 deliveries to illegal alien mothers, at a total cost of $215.2 million (an average of $2,842 per delivery). Illegal alien mothers accounted for 36 percent of all Medi-Cal funded births in California that year.
* TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THIS WAS 1994-1996. CAN ANYBODY EVEN MAKE A CONSERVATIVE GUESS OF WHAT CALIFORNIA IS DISHING OUT? DON'T EVEN THINK FOR THE ACCOUNTING OF EVERY OTHER STATE? CALIFORNIA IS BROKE.

The joke is going to be on California when countless numbers in Arizona, pack up their possession and head for the neighboring state. Perhaps Governor Richardson will welcome these lawbreakers with open arms, as we already know he issues drivers licenses to them. Of course Utah and the great state of Texas may receive additional occupancy as well, who will expediently offer them welfare like the once Golden State. It's a crying shame that foreign nation get preference over our own pregnant mothers our sick and infirm. What excuse do politicians have to sell American jobs overseas, while importing discount labor. Enact amendment to the 1986 Simpson-Mazzoli bill, don't use propaganda to say the laws were broken--when never enforced. Tell your Washington and state Senators and Representatives what--YOU--want, and not--CONSPIRE--with the special interest lobbyists? Here's the Capitol Switchboard number 202-224-3121 ONE LANGUAGE, ONE FLAG AND DEPORT--ALL--ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS. IT CAN BE DONE WITH THE NEW GENERATION OF E-VERIFY.

 
At 2/18/2010 9:49 AM, Blogger Htowner said...

Love Texas. 8th largest economy worldwide, one of the few states that could be self sustaining. 2nd only to CA in # of Fortune 500 co's; no state income tax, reasonable housing costs and cost of living, mild winter weather (well, for the most part), Mountains, lakes and beaches (that you can actually swim in! Folks are down to earth and our Gov/Legislature stands up for state's rights and doesn't take any BS from WA! Texas has it's faults but-great place to live

 

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