Friday, January 29, 2010

V-Signs of Economic Recovery

Durable Goods (percent change from year ago).

Real GDP growth (percent change from year ago).
Here's one more from Scott Grannis (Chicago PMI).

6 Comments:

At 1/29/2010 6:12 PM, Anonymous KJ said...

Benny

You're a moron. The stock market is influenced by many things, including prior policies. Was the recession and market decline that began in 2000 GWB's fault? Of course not.

 
At 1/29/2010 6:37 PM, Anonymous Canny Mo said...

Nonsense.

The GDP hike was based mostly on inventories and the report stated as much. Personal consumption and residential investment growth slowed.

Read a PROFESSIONAL analysis of the GDP report withe the positives, negatives, and remaining questions:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/01/few-comments-on-q4-gdp-report.html

This is a weak GDP report and false recovery and we'll soon get hit in the face by all the inresolved problems.

 
At 1/29/2010 7:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

KJ,

Don't waste your time on Benny.

 
At 1/29/2010 8:34 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

We had a build-up in inventories, an increase in exports, and a decrease in imports:

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER 2009 (ADVANCE ESTIMATE)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the third.

Real exports of goods and services increased 18.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with
an increase of 17.8 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 10.5 percent,
compared with an increase of 21.3 percent.

My comment: Government has spent an enormous sum of money to achieve a slow recovery, after a severe recession. It seems inevitable taxes will rise substantially, one way or another. We can expect U.S. living standards to rise at a much slower rate (or perhaps decline) compared to the two superbubbles in 1995-00 and 2002-07, where living standards rose at high annual rates.

 
At 1/29/2010 9:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't get your nuts in a knot. The GDP data will be revised umpteen times.

The Minnie Fed sayeth thus far that this is the only post-WW11 recession wherein real GDP is still negative from the prior peak eight quarters after the recession date quarter. In comparative terms, the other uglies in 1973 and 1981 had fully recovered and were in expansion.

If real retail sales are an indication (personal consumption expenditures are 71% of GDP) the recovery ascent will be a long and winding road.

 
At 1/31/2010 7:41 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Well Peter Scfiff is more than a bit skeptical about recovery...

 

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