Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
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Hmmm, Rasmussen Report's Daily Presidential Tracking Poll isn't nearly as approving...Also from Rasmussen Reports: Right Direction or Wrong Track - 29% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction
A slow recovery after a severe recession:IMF Sees 3.9% Global Growth Wall Street JournalJANUARY 27, 2010WASHINGTON—The International Monetary Fund said the global economy is set to rebound sharply this year, with 3.9% growth, but the U.S. and other rich countries aren't likely to grow fast enough to reduce unemployment substantially.Growth in what the IMF categorizes as "advanced countries" is expected to average only 2.1% this year and 2.4% in 2011, adjusted for inflation...The IMF expects the U.S. economy to grow 2.7% this year (2010) and then fall back to 2.4% growth next year (2011).Germany is expected to grow 1.5% in 2010 and 1.9% in 2011, while Britain expands 1.3% this year and 2.7% in 2011, and Japan grows 1.7% in 2010 and 2.2% in 2011...China's growth rate will be 10% this year and nearly as fast in 2011, while India's growth rate will be close to 8% both years.My comment: This isn't a V-shaped recovery. It'll be a U, W, or L-shaped recovery, although the U.S. can't afford a double dip recession. The U.S. current account deficit shrunk from 6% of GDP to 3% of GDP. All the growth is from the destruction of imports (exports increase GDP and imports decrease GDP).
It Isn't Dead. Dems Will Try To Ram Through Health Care BillSenator Jon Kyl relays reports --very reliable reports according to Kyl-- that Congressional Democrats have indeed decided to use reconciliation to resurrect the remains of Obamacare, despite Massachusetts, despite the public's continuing and still growing dislike of the bill, and despite the jam-down ultra-partisanship such a naked power play and perversion of Senate rules that such an approach entails. HH: It’s remarkable, but let’s get to the news of the day. There is some talk that the Democrats are going to try reconciliation, a jam down of their bitterly divisive, and almost certainly wrong-headed health care plan. What can you tell us about this? JK: This is kind of breaking news. As you say, we’re just hearing it. We haven’t been formally advised, but we have it on relatively good authority. And this would be what they call the nuclear option. This would be we can’t do it with 60 votes, because now we have a new Senator from Massachusetts, so we’ll do it with 51. Now it’s called the nuclear option, because it really upsets all of the tradition and precedent within the Senate which on a really big bill on the magnitude of health care, would always have strong bipartisan support, and therefore the 60 vote requirement really doesn’t matter. But here, using an arcane part of the budget that ordinarily relates to tax cuts or tax increases, it doesn’t relate to comprehensive bills with a lot of substantive provisions in them, but just changes in the tax code, usually. They’re going to try to rewrite this bill to, where it would only need 51 votes, and still accomplish most of what the bill will accomplish. Now what this will do is let the Blanche Lincolns and Ben Nelsons and Evan Bayhs and other to say oh, I can’t go along with this now. And of course, that’s exactly what their constituents want to hear. But it doesn’t matter, because their votes in effect at this point don’t count. They don’t matter. All it takes is 51 Democrats to vote for it, and it becomes law. It remains to be seen how long the process will take, and whether, and how much of the provisions of the comprehensive health care reform that we’ve been looking at can be scooped up into this legislation. But it now appears the Democrats are going to try that. Hugh Hewitt
I think Obama could get his approval ratings up very easily. All he has to do is stop making speeches and stop trying to do stuff.
I don't understand.> "First Time: Disapprove (48.8%) > Approve (48.1%)"The chart says Approve 48.8%, and disapprove 45.4%.How does that work?
that is funny, he is still very popular back here in europe. and it is partly because of the health care reform he tries to do. people back here think, that there are milions of americans, who simply cannot afford the health insurance and that the system just let them die on the streets.
This suggests that "change you can believe in" has become "change we don't want." Obama should stick to golfing--he'd be more popular. It's not that people dislike him personally. They just think he has lousy policy ideas and has been a terrible president to date.
that is funny, he is still very popular back here in europe. and it is partly because of the health care reform he tries to do. people back here think, that there are milions of americans, who simply cannot afford the health insurance and that the system just let them die on the streets.Well, that certainly dispels the myth among some Americans (and pretty much all Europeans) that Europeans are so much more worldly, well read and knowledgeable than Americans.
Obama should stick to golfing--he'd be more popular. It's not that people dislike him personally. They just think he has lousy policy ideas and has been a terrible president to date.This I don't understand.If his ideas are so horrendous and he is willing to use whatever means is available to him to inflict his vision on the population, why don't people dislike him personally? This is a guy who threw friends who were not politically popular (Jeremiah, among others) under the bus to advance himself politically. What do people find so likable in a two-faced would-be tyrant?
methinks: "why don't people dislike him personally?"Guilt. Irrational guilt, to be sure. But still guilt over the two centuries of oppression at the hands of whites.Martin Luther King would be saddened to learn that the first black president is being judged not by the content of his character but by the color of his skin.Your friend, John Dewey (AKA jetbeagle)
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Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan.
Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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