Thursday, January 21, 2010

Following 19 Weekly Declines, Jobless Claims Rise

WSJ -- "The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week -- an increase a U.S. Labor Department economist said is partly due to an administrative backlog in processing claims. Total claims lasting more than one week, meanwhile, declined.

The four-week moving average, which aims to smooth volatility in the data, also increased as well last week. The Labor Department said the four-week moving average increased by 7,000 to 448,250 from the previous week's revised average of 441,250 (see chart above). An economist at the U.S. Labor Department Thursday said last week's numbers were higher then expected in part because the Christmas and New Years holidays created a backlog in some states. "It is not an economic thing -- it is an administrative thing," he said."

MP: Following nineteen consecutive weekly declines in jobless claims, the 4-week average rose last week for the first since last August. As the Labor Department report suggests, it might be more of an "administrative" factor than any significant reversal of the downward trend since March.

7 Comments:

At 1/21/2010 2:58 PM, Anonymous Junkyard_hawg1985 said...

While the increase may be attributed to "administrative factors" this simply means that the previous few weeks were not as good as originally reported.

I think the most disturbing news in the report is that 650,000 people began receiving EUC. That number is HUGE. These are poeple who have been out of work for a long time.

 
At 1/21/2010 2:58 PM, Blogger bobble said...

there's good news and bad news on employment.

the good news: corporations are hiring!

the bad news: corporations are doing their hiring overseas

"India's top three outsourcing companies are ramping up hiring and increasing pay as global corporations, mainly from the U.S., send more work offshore to cut costs as they emerge from the downturn." India outsourcers hiring staff as US demand grows

and yet:

"More than 5.9 million are receiving extended benefits in the week ending Jan. 2, the latest data available, an increase of more than 600,000 from the previous week.

The increasing number of people claiming extended unemployment insurance indicates that even as layoffs are declining, hiring hasn't picked up. That leaves people out of work for longer and longer periods of time.

 
At 1/21/2010 4:44 PM, Blogger OBloodyHell said...

> "The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week -- an increase a U.S. Labor Department economist said is partly due to an administrative backlog in processing claims. Total claims lasting more than one week, meanwhile, declined.

Actually, for once, this is true.

The jackasses, despite having done it once before, couldn't manage to process my claims dating back to Nov wk 1 until Dec. wk 2, and even there managed to take another 3 weeks to process them and get my the money...

Xmas without money. not a lot of fun.

==============================
> the bad news: corporations are doing their hiring overseas

"an early sign that the Great Recession may ultimately benefit India as cost-conscious companies outsource more work, just as they did after the dot-com bust."

Yes, bobbie, and you know what happened? As soon as things actually got better after the dot-com breakdown, they brought that business back home, because it's a headache for them.

You know what the solution is?

It's the one that works every time.

"Cut taxes"

You know what we now can be certain doesn't work?

"Stimulus funds"

You know which of the two options above the genius Obama admin is doing?

I'll give you *three* guesses.

:oD

.

 
At 1/21/2010 5:15 PM, Anonymous Ranma 1/2 said...

There goes your Christmas tree.

Wow, I was actually going to compliment you for finally telling it like it is, but then in the last sentence you "spun" it into an "administrative" glitch hiding an otherwise flawless recovery.

Don't you realize that every one of these claims represents additional job losses? Calculated Risk does. He states that the level is still way too high regardless of the trend.

And as was noted multiple times by multiple people, initial claims FAR ounumber actual job losses suggesting a high rate of claim denials and ineligibility, rendering initial claims MOSTLY WORTHLESS as an economic indicator. Too much of it is noise and you can't tell where worthy claims begin and where claims of fraud and desperation end. To believe the ratio of eligible and ineligible claims remains constant is fantasy.

Payroll employment is the best labor statistic we've got and it is showing no signs of rise. In fact, in many states job losses are accelerating.

 
At 1/21/2010 5:44 PM, Blogger bobble said...

OBH:"As soon as things actually got better after the dot-com breakdown, they brought that business back home, because it's a headache for them."

sorry to hear about your UI issues :o[

i certainly hope the jobs come back. personally, i never saw that happen after dot-com. what i experienced was decreasing job offers/rates and ever increasing numbers of Indian H1b's working in the US. i primarily worked for large corporations, so that may have influenced my experience.

as far as i know the government doesn't track offshoring statistics at all. and the govt H1b stats are only marginally useful. what do you base work coming back to US workers after the dot-com bust on?

 
At 1/22/2010 7:50 AM, Blogger juandos said...

From the Business Insider there is this chart: Employment-Population Ratio: December 2009...

Interesting but maybe that's all it is...

 
At 1/22/2010 10:07 AM, Anonymous Cooper said...

58.2% is a scarry number on that graph. I always prefer that statistic, but would also like aditional information on the number of people looking for work (not really unemployment, but retired-underage etc)

Getting back to 62-63% is going to be a fight. Looks like we normally loose 2% points or so each resession, this time we're down 8

 

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