Saturday, October 17, 2009

Worldwide Recession Is Over

Manufacturing Activity
NY TIMES -- The worldwide recession appears to have ended, with surveys showing manufacturing activity is on the rise nearly everywhere. “It is the emerging markets that are leading, with the U.S. following and Europe lagging,” said Chris Williamson, the chief economist of Markit, a company that surveys manufacturers in many countries.

The surveys, conducted in the United States by the Institute of Supply Management and in other countries by Markit, measure not the level of manufacturing output but the way it is changing. The surveys have a reputation for showing turns in the economy, often before other indicators do. In the charts above, the index figures have been converted to show the number of points over or under 50 for each of 12 countries, from the end of 2007 through September.

While details vary, the slump was sharp in nearly every country, reflecting the sudden decline that came after Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008. That worsened a credit squeeze, which meant some companies had no choice but to cut back on everything they could, from inventories to marketing expenditures to jobs. Others, fearing that the economic outlook could become much worse, cut back voluntarily.

It now appears that companies cut too much, and the surveys of manufacturing show that companies are expanding in most countries. Over all, the surveys indicate that the manufacturing sectors of China, Taiwan, South Korea and India had begun to grow by April, but that the United States did not follow suit until August.

16 Comments:

At 10/17/2009 5:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

These charts help define what happened last year as a classical panic. So we can call it the panic of 2008 101 years after the last panic. It makes sense as after Lehman and Reserve no one trusted anyone else, which is a classical definition of a panic. Only the FDIC prevented this spreading to the retail banks. But we had a run on money market funds and the noted unwillingness of banks to lend to each other.

 
At 10/17/2009 5:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I admire your Pollyannna view about the trajectory of the future and the position of conservative theology in shaping it, but I think being so one sided lessens the value of your reports.

Hydra

 
At 10/17/2009 5:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As soon as the worlwide recession is over, the energy crisis will return, and with it, the pollution crisis.

Hydra

 
At 10/17/2009 6:56 PM, Anonymous Tropic Lightning said...

Hydra:

Pollyanaish it is, indeed, but there is NOTHING conservative about this viewpoint. It is religious libertarian faith in markets to correct the worst of circumstances in short order.

Conservatives are predicting a long, cold recession and much more pain to come. This is based on both a complete, un-cherry picked view of the entire economy and what we believe these Keynesian policies will lead to. Commercial real estate will be in complete collapse in months, foreclosures will sore, layoffs will not only continue, they'll speed up again. The stock market will soon realize this and plunge 500-800 points by yhe end of the year. Financials are held together by smoke and mirrors. 400-500 banks will soon fail. Whether we have stagflation or a deflation spiral will depend on Obama.

If anything, this quick recovery nonsense is in lock-step with Obama/Biden lying propaganda. By this time next year we'll be wondering WTF happened. Remember you read it from me first.

 
At 10/17/2009 7:22 PM, Anonymous Benny "Tell It LIke It Is Man" Cole said...

This is great news.
Good riddance recession.
Hello next 20-year global boom.
The USA can participate--we just need to whack our parasitic military, cut rural subsidies, so we can compete in the global economy.
Go USA!

 
At 10/17/2009 10:05 PM, Anonymous Spaghetti Sauce said...

The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index fell from 73.5 in September to 69.4 in October.

A certain economics professor from the University of Michigan had absolutely nothing to say about it.

 
At 10/17/2009 10:41 PM, Blogger Chuck said...

Spaghetti Sauce:
Do not speak so quickly. You underestimate this mans ability to pick through a pile of horseshit to find one mustard seed or green shoot. Actually it used to be a green shoot. Guess the color now? But what does the practical man see? A professor covered in mustard seeds and green shoots?

Please substitute woman for man as desired so we don't have another "Marshall" chart on recession or unemployment. What's the chance of that?

 
At 10/17/2009 11:54 PM, Blogger Michael said...

You can make it,
but will anyone buy it.

 
At 10/18/2009 11:39 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The USA can participate--we just need to whack our parasitic military ...

You keep repeating this line, like some socialist commissar with a verbal tick. The military is not "parasitic", it defends a system that has made the US the richest, freest nation in the history of the world. The military secures international trade routes and serves as the deterrent to those who would undermine the efforts of a free people to pursue their dreams. It is a job they do more efficiently, effectively and humanely than any armed forces in human history and, given the tiny fraction of our GDP that we spend in their support, they are a bargain to boot. If your looking for parasites, look to the myriad of now wealthy nations whose decadence has led them to lean on the US for their defense while diverting money into extravagant social programs.

I don't doubt that when you look at caliber of the men and women who have stepped up to guarantee the very freedoms that you take for granted that you are overcome with a deep sense of inadequacy. Judging by the quality of your commentary that feeling is justified.

 
At 10/18/2009 12:24 PM, Anonymous Mermite said...

Benny has revealed himself as a leftist poseur of libertarian sentiments on multiple occasions. His belief that his deception is effective is the most comical part of it.

 
At 10/18/2009 12:27 PM, Anonymous Bueller said...

Hydra, how in the world do we get both an energy crisis and a pollution crisis?

During an "energy crisis" prices are high and people reduce consumption. That means less, not more, pollution.

 
At 10/18/2009 6:00 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Worldwide recession is over?!?!

Well then maybe its time to take an expensive cruise to celebrate this good news...

 
At 10/18/2009 10:04 PM, Anonymous Benny "Tell It LIke It Is Man" Cole said...

Anon-
Those terrific men and women in uniform are more useful in the civilian economy.
It is interesting that such a wide-ranging group of conservatives as Pat Buchanan, George Will and John McLaughlin (Group) are now openly asking why we have such an outsized military, with 800 bases around the world.
They all agree our occupation of Iraq is a huge and expensive mistake--one that would not be possible if we did not have such a huge parasitic military for incompetent demagogues to play with.
Read your James Monroe, your Jefferson, you President Eisenhower--this standing and expensive military is not part of the American tradition.
When I say the military is parasitic, I am referring to its economic contribution, which is none. That does characterize the soldiers in uniform. They are just doing what civilian leaders tell them.
Indeed, the military wanted no part of the Iraq occupation, and all but said so. It was their duty to follow President Bush's orders.
I gather most soldiers today just want to get the hell out of there. Who wants to be the last American blown to bits in Iraq? And for what? It was a worthless foreign entanglement.
Paid for by you and me.

 
At 10/19/2009 5:31 AM, Blogger juandos said...

"They all agree our occupation of Iraq is a huge and expensive mistake--one that would not be possible if we did not have such a huge parasitic military for incompetent demagogues to play with"...


Let me guess, you have some credible sources to back that line up, right pseudo benny, right?

Why don't you trot those credible sources out?

 
At 10/19/2009 2:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hydra, how in the world do we get both an energy crisis and a pollution crisis?

During an "energy crisis" prices are high and people reduce consumption. That means less, not more, pollution.

-----------------------------

Individuals reduce consumtion. Collectively consumption can still go up.

Same kind of thing happens with Jevon's Paradox. Due to efficiency the consumption of each use goes down, but the number of uses goes up.

As long as there are enough people willing to pay the price we will use all the fuel available. For everyone else, that means a fuel crisis.

You are correct though, both conditions cannot coexist permanently.

Hydra

 
At 10/20/2009 12:51 PM, Anonymous CH said...

I recently read an article published by CEO Q magazine on economic recovery, the new world order, and the impact of current economic policies. I thought i would share it with you all as it has some very interesting facts and insights on the crisis and expected recovery.

Check it out: http://www.ceoqmagazine.com

 

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