Sunday, October 04, 2009

Jobless Rate May Continue To Rise Through 2010

The chart above shows the monthly U.S. jobless rate back to January 1990 (BLS data here), highlighting (in grey) the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions, and the two periods following the last two recessions that were referred to as the periods of "jobless recovery." Following the 1990-1991 recession, the unemployment continued to increase for 15 months until it peaked in June 1992 at 7.8%, and following the 2001 recession, the jobless rate increased for 19 months until June 2003 when it peaked at 6.3%.

Assuming that a) the most recent recession ended in June 2009 and b) we have another jobless recovery of at least 16 months, we can expect the unemployment to realistically continue to increase at least through the end of 2010 before it reaches its post-recession peak in the current "jobless recovery."

2 Comments:

At 10/04/2009 7:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Do we expect growth through September to be positive? If not, then the assumption that a) the most receent (sic) recession ended in June 2009 is completely fallacious.

Personally, I don't believe 6.3% unemployment is possible under the current government. Unless drastic changes occur in the government, then I believe the days of sub 8.0% unemployment are history, never to return.

 
At 10/06/2009 1:44 PM, Anonymous Junkyard_hawg1985 said...

Mark,

Even if the recession ended in June, unemployment is still rising fast. The September jobs report was AWFUL. From the employment situation survey, the number of employed Americans dropped from 139,649,000 in August to 138,864,000 in September or a loss of 785,000 jobs in only one month. The employer survey was not as bad because it does not adequately reflect small business. Small business would have taken the brunt of the minimum wage increase.

 

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