Adjusted Jobless Claims Suggest Recession Ended
In other words, this recession was worse than the last two, but not nearly as severe as the previous three, using this adjusted measure of jobless claims. Additionally, the sharp .059% reduction in adjusted jobless claims from the March 2009 high of 0.4226% to 0.3634% in September follows the same pattern of 0.05%-0.06% reductions in adjusted claims at the end of the 2001 recession (a .052% reduction from .3318% in October 2001 to February 2002) and at the end of the 1990-1991 recession (a .058% reduction from .3915% in March 1991 to .3327% in July 1991).
Finally, the current level of 0.3634% for jobless claims as a share of the September labor force is above the level at the end of the 2001 recession, but is very close to the levels that marked the ends of the four previous recessions (see dashed blue line in graph above).
See a very similar analysis here from Scott Grannis, who alternatively calculates jobless claims as a percent of payrolls with the exact same graphical pattern presented here using jobless claims as a percent of the labor force (slightly different denominator, but same numerator, and same story).