Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Back in early March, the Intrade odds of positive economic growth in the U.S. for the third quarter was only 25%. Those odds of positive real GDP growth in Q3 have recently risen to 90%, as many economic indicators now point to an economic recovery and positive growth this quarter (July, Aug., Sept.), see chart above (Intrade link here). 
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
2 Comments:
Chart of contributions to 2cd quarter GDP
Courtesy of Innocent Bystanders
Like Anonymous has referenced, it would be hard for the US government to spend over $1 trillion more than last year and not have a positive 3rd or 4th quarter. The entire US GDP is roughly $14 trillion, so there would have to be a huge contraction in the non federal government GDP for a negative Q3/Q4.
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