Saturday, August 08, 2009

From 25% to 90% in 160 Days; Intrade Odds of Positive Economic Growth in the Third Quarter

Back in early March, the Intrade odds of positive economic growth in the U.S. for the third quarter was only 25%. Those odds of positive real GDP growth in Q3 have recently risen to 90%, as many economic indicators now point to an economic recovery and positive growth this quarter (July, Aug., Sept.), see chart above (Intrade link here).

Originally posted at Carpe Diem.


2 Comments:

At 8/08/2009 5:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chart of contributions to 2cd quarter GDP

Courtesy of Innocent Bystanders

 
At 8/09/2009 9:48 PM, Blogger OA said...

Like Anonymous has referenced, it would be hard for the US government to spend over $1 trillion more than last year and not have a positive 3rd or 4th quarter. The entire US GDP is roughly $14 trillion, so there would have to be a huge contraction in the non federal government GDP for a negative Q3/Q4.

 

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