Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Chicago Fed Index Increases for 5th Straight Month

CHICAGO FED -- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index shows that economic activity improved in June - the index was –1.80 in June, up from –2.30 in May. The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was –2.12 in June, up from –2.65 in the previous month (see top chart above).

June’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was well below its historical trend. The increase in the index was primarily due to the production and income category of indicators. This category made a smaller negative contribution to the index in June, –0.32, compared with its contribution in May, –0.70. The smaller negative contribution was driven by the fact that total industrial production decreased 0.4 percent in June after declining 1.2 percent in May.

MP: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3) has increased in each of the last five months, the first five consecutive monthly increase since the end of the 2001 recession, see bottom chart above.


At 7/21/2009 10:48 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Such a prescient asshattery call 18 months ago, Perry.

From the Chicago Fed link:

A CFNAI-MA3 value above +0.20 value following an economic contraction indicates a significant likelihood that a recession has ended

Apart from your disingenuity for failure to include the entire data series in your charts, it looks like the chart is only half way to a recovery signal.

The Philly Fed coincident Index says the recession continued through June 2009.


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