Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Forecasters: Economic Recovery in Q3 2009

The U.S. economy is headed for two quarters of negative growth in the first half of 2009, according to 43 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters project that real GDP will contract at an annual rate of 5.2% in the first quarter and 1.8% in the second quarter of 2009. The survey participants expect economic recovery to begin in the third quarter of 2009. On a year-over-year basis, growth is expected to be -2.0% in 2009 and 2.2% in 2010. See chart above.

20 Comments:

At 2/17/2009 11:29 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Fed did such a fantastic job of predicting the housing bubble, I'm glad they're predicting a recovery soon. That means it must be so! Sunshine and lollipops baby!

 
At 2/17/2009 11:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is Folly!

There is no way we will rebound that quickly. No Way.

 
At 2/17/2009 11:54 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Anonymous, those who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones, particularly when the glass is so thin. You remind me of someone who predicted a stock market crash in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008. He was finally right, after the market hit an all-time high, for the wrong reasons.

 
At 2/17/2009 12:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's the forecasting business. Everything turns in 6 months.

Three months ago, the esteemed panel of forecasters called for GDP growth of -1.1% in Q1.09 now downgraded to -5.2%, an unemployment rate of 7.0% now downgraded to 7.8%. They actually think with an initial January unemployment rate of 7.6%, the rate will only average 7.9% in February and March. Can these people add?

C'mon boyz, the Lehman collapse was 5 months ago. Try to get ahead of the curve.

 
At 2/17/2009 12:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Another bit of useless information.

 
At 2/17/2009 12:46 PM, Blogger fboness said...

"Another bit of useless information."

This, without irony, from "anonymous", the ever flowing river of useless information.

 
At 2/17/2009 12:55 PM, Blogger Cabodog said...

About the only thing that has me convinced of a recovery in 2009 is the record amount of people that are convinced that we won't recover.

 
At 2/17/2009 1:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fred Smith is predicting recovery in '09 as well. As far as I know, his only association with the "Fed" is his executive position with FedEx.

It's amazing how many different, public and verifiable sources are predicting recovery later this year, including the Central Bank in Sweden. And, yet, so many anonymous "expert" contributors posting on this blog seem to think otherwise. Hmmm...whom to believe?

 
At 2/17/2009 1:35 PM, Blogger AmitRaman said...

Forecasting is by definition wrong. So, please, lay off the FED or any respected agency.

Amit

 
At 2/17/2009 1:48 PM, Anonymous jrich said...

Sweet! So Obama's/Reid's/Pelosi's spendulus package is going to have the economy back in the black in 6 months! *rolls eyes*

 
At 2/17/2009 4:18 PM, Anonymous mojo said...

These are optimistic estimates. I would bet that Obama plans to finance his stimulus package by selling US Gov't bonds to the banks. Essentially, crowding out private borrowing and de facto nationalizing the banks.

 
At 2/17/2009 4:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kudlow lied to me. He said the stock market turned the corner and was heading up. He told me about mustard seeds. I took his advice and now I'm broke.

How can one person be so wrong about the ecomomy and have his own show about the economy?

 
At 2/17/2009 4:27 PM, Blogger Marko said...

This estimate may not be fully accounting for Obummer's politically motivated negative speech. Every time the guy opens his mouth about how this is the end of the world, more people get out of the stock market, and more managers lay off workers to prepare for the destruction of the economy as we know. It is hard to account for how an incompetent or politically motivated socialist president will ruin things.

 
At 2/17/2009 5:42 PM, Blogger QT said...

Marko,

Puts one in mind of these words from Dylan Thomas's A Child's Christmas in Wales:

"..smoke, indeed, was pouring out of the dining-room, and the gong was bombilating, and Mrs. Prothero was announcing ruin like a town crier in Pompeii"

:0

 
At 2/17/2009 9:16 PM, Anonymous t jefferson said...

Ladies and gentlemen please note the important person in the white lab coat with the five o'clock shadow and the telescopic pointer, he will be releasing important information of a economic study put into chart form. The
rectangle blocks on the right are lower then the blocks on the left this is indicative of things getting better pretty darn quick. When you find out things didn't go as planned we will act surprised and blame the unions in a Kudlow type rant.

 
At 2/17/2009 11:57 PM, Blogger OBloodyHell said...

> There is no way we will rebound that quickly. No Way.

You know, I had my own doubts in this regard, but, given such a statement from a sheer genius like Anonymouse, I feel strangely comforted that it will happen.

 
At 2/18/2009 12:05 AM, Blogger OBloodyHell said...

> Essentially, crowding out private borrowing and de facto nationalizing the banks

Well, I think what's actually happening is more a matter of swapping bad investments for bonds, the latter of which are, so far anyway, considered more reliable.

In that sense, it could stabilize the credit market which, from other signs, isn't lacking so much in actual credit as much as inter-creditor trust.

As far as it "defacto nationalizing" the banks, I think it'll be interesting to see how many banks take direct instruction from bureaucrats as an option over selling those securities down to minimiz their presence in their portfolios at first opportunity. That would be one key difference between "defacto" nationalizing and actual nationalizing.

I suppose it largely depends on whether or not the government can make it sweeter to listen to idiot bureaucrats and get largesse or to break loose at the first chance.

Given human nature and the incompetence of bureaucrats, I suspect (and hope) that the reality of things will favor the latter over the former.

 
At 2/18/2009 12:06 AM, Blogger OBloodyHell said...

> How can one person be so wrong about the ecomomy and have his own show about the economy?

Umm, ask Marx and Keynes...

For that matter, in a similar vein, ask Paul Ehrlich why anyone still listens to him after 40 years of flagrantly wrong predictions.

 
At 2/18/2009 12:11 AM, Blogger OBloodyHell said...

> When you find out things didn't go as planned

Or, when, in fact, they do, Tom, here, will be counting on the fact that blogger.com will have long since eliminated any proof of his incompetent prediction from living memory as a sign to ignore, assiduously, everything he says.

Much like Jeane Dixon, Tom wins either way...

 
At 2/19/2009 9:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mark my words, this economy will bottom out by July. It will stay flat for a couple of months and then start the march again.

I know, trust me.

 

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