Saturday, November 08, 2008

Wholesale Electricity Prices Plummet By 77% From June Peak; Close to Four-Year Low in November

According to data from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) available from the EIA (data here), wholesale electricity prices in New England have fallen by 77% since the peak in June, from $207.29 per MWh to $47.38 on November 4 (see chart above). The November 4 price is the close to the lowest level in at least 4 years, there were only a few days in the fall of 2006 when prices were lower (see chart).

Update: The percent decline should be -77.1%, not 90% as originally stated. I apologize for the mistake and thank Bret for pointing it out.

13 Comments:

At 11/08/2008 3:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What are you trying to pull? First the natural gas, now this? That 90% isn't abnormal because you are comparing PEAK demand season to the off season.

Seasonally adjust it and then adjust it for the temperature change, too, and you'll see electricity prices are still quite firm!

 
At 11/08/2008 3:27 PM, Anonymous xpatUSA said...

All the Prof did was to state the facts without presenting any conclusions, so he's not "pulling" anything.

I find the wholesale price volatility quite interesting. A pity that my latest bill bears little relationship to the latest price of about 4 cts/kwh on the chart, as opposed to 18+ cts/kwh where I live :-(

 
At 11/08/2008 3:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you compare retails sales of a holiday gift store, you do not compare June with December.

The inference from this is that there has been massive deflation (90%). I'll agree, $47 is low, but I bet if you go back and look at other Novembers over the last 5 years you'll find some lower lows.

 
At 11/08/2008 4:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Data mining again carpe diem. You do realize, do you not, that electricity prices do spike.

It was a 4 day price spike from May 5 to May 8 and a 2 day spike on June 6 and 9.

What's the average weighted price in 2008 compared to 2007?

The rolling 30 day average going back almost 6 years is here.

My guess is that the natural gas peaking plants charged big bucks (the price of natural gas was 100% more expensive at the time) on the spike days in question.

 
At 11/08/2008 4:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm nixing this blog. There are too many good blogs out there to read? Are you trying to manipulate us or troll us to post? You may be a phd but you've proven you don't know crap about the world.

 
At 11/08/2008 4:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Congratulation to Obama for lowering our electricty cost by 90%, the man is simply marvelous.

I'll bet gasoline prices will continue to fall as well.

There has never been a better time to buy a home, thanks to Obama for lowering home prices !!!!

I wonder what Obama will do next, is there any more graphs showing what else Obmam has lowerd in price?

 
At 11/08/2008 9:59 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

My utility co is raisnig rates 6% on January 1. Funny how that works.

 
At 11/09/2008 12:59 AM, Blogger Bret said...

I don't get how 207.29 to 47.38 is a drop of 90%? It's a bit under 80% isn't it?

 
At 11/09/2008 4:11 AM, Blogger 1 said...

"Data mining again carpe diem. You do realize, do you not, that electricity prices do spike"...

ROFLMAO!...

Yeah! That's exactly what that was, Professor Perry going to a governemnt run web site and linking us to a particular page on that site is now called, 'data mining'?!?! LOL!

"I'm nixing this blog. There are too many good blogs out there to read? Are you trying to manipulate us or troll us to post? You may be a phd but you've proven you don't know crap about the world"...

Good bye & good riddance... Don't let the door hit you in your whining @$$ on the way out...

 
At 11/09/2008 8:05 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, is it juandos or is it 1?

ROTFLMAO! You forgot the T. Did you also forget to take your bipolar medication?

Perry might think that he has some knowledge of the oil markets, but he is clueless when it comes to the electricity markets and as Bret has indicated, clueless when it comes to percentages. Sheesh, the FERC data was posted. You can clearly see the spike post Katrita hurricanes in 2005 when natgas ran up in price.

Now you did not answer the question posed: What's the average weighted price in 2008 compared to 2007?


I'll give you a hint juandos. New England (or the Mass Hub or Nepool or whatever) generates ~40% of its electrical power with natural gas.

Natgas to electricity is as dumb as corn distilleries to transportation fuels. On that issue, I agree with the learned prof.

 
At 11/09/2008 12:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If this if "rolling on the floor funny" for you then you probably should get out more.

No, natural gas for generating capacity is NOT dumb at all. The fact remains natural gas generating capacity is THE single least expensive way to build electrical generating capacity. It's also one of the quickest. It requires precious capital to add capacity and capital is becoming scarce. The input costs (which ever fuel) for electricity is only important relative to the cost of capital to add capacity. In other words, if you put higher capital costs into an equation... the (relatively) high price of natural gas doesn't matter so much.

 
At 11/09/2008 4:24 PM, Blogger 1 said...

Hey anon nice try at trying to change the subject...

Remember YOU were the one whining about data mining when all Professor Perry did was put a link up there...

Maybe its you lack of command of the English language...

 
At 11/09/2008 5:19 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

His data was irrelevant and pointless. You don't compare electric prices in the summer with those in the fall. I'll let you figure out why that is.

If you put up a link saying cars go 159% faster than bicycles, I'd say, "yeah, so what? who cares? of course they do" That's the same with his data. Any inference drawn from it at all (deflation?) is irrelevant at best!

This "phd" guy is worthless. This blog is worthless. I can't remember why I bookmarked it? I'm going to stay on tho' to correct his future errors... and I ain't no phd.

 

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