Saturday, November 08, 2008

Intrade Odds for Secretary of the Treasury

Timothy Geithner: 49%
Lawrence Summers: 45%
Laura Tyson: 18%
Paul Volcker: 10%
Warren Buffet: 5%
Paul Krugman: 3%

Link (go to Politics, then Pres. Appointments)

6 Comments:

At 11/08/2008 9:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

How comes the sum is over 100%? mL

 
At 11/08/2008 9:24 AM, Blogger Mark J. Perry said...

mL: There are 23 separate Intrade contracts for Secretary of the Treasury right now, and there is no reason that the sums have to add up to 100%. As the decision gets closer and trading volume increases, the sum might be closer to 100%.

When there are only two outcomes (like McCain and Obama for president), it would be more likely that the sum is 100% for the two contracts.

 
At 11/08/2008 10:27 AM, Blogger The Daily Pander said...

I don't have an Intrade account so I offer this potential arbitrage for free to those who do: if the collective bids on the whole pool add up to more than 100% short the whole pool. Whatever you collect in excess of 100% (less transaction costs) is guaranteed profit.

A word of caution: my advice is free and you get what you pay for.

 
At 11/08/2008 4:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Depression dead ahead, same failed policies that got us into this mess used by the same clowns.

 
At 11/08/2008 10:52 PM, Anonymous poor boomer said...

Volcker would send the LaRouche people into a tizzy.

 
At 11/09/2008 3:53 AM, Blogger 1 said...

Hmmm, I wonder why Gov. Granholm's name isn't in the running...

After all look what an amazing job she's done for Michigan...

Granholm is at least as good a liar as Obama...

 

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