UM Predicts Job Boom: 3.5m New Jobs in 2009-10
In their annual summer forecast of the U.S. economy, University of Michigan economists say that three factors have helped our economy stave off a full-blown recession: 1) strong and timely action by the Federal Reserve to prevent financial collapse, 2) temporary tax breaks for households and businesses, and 3) strong demand for our products abroad.
The U-M economists predict annualized increases in real GDP growth of 2.6% in the first half of 2009, 3.3% in the second half and 3.6% during 2010. This translates into an increase of 900,000 payroll jobs during 2009 and 2.6 million jobs during 2010, after a loss of 700,000 jobs this year. Even so, the unemployment rate will increase next year to an average of 6.3%, but will fall to 5.6% by the end of 2010.
Along with the creation of 3.5 million jobs, rising GDP and slowing consumer price inflation over the next two years, the U.S. economy will show some signs of improvement in the housing market, oil prices and vehicle sales.
5 Comments:
Once again, we're all indebted to you, Mark, for a link to a serious forecast that combats the excessive gloom in the media about our economy's recent and forthcoming performance.
Wouldn't it be satisfying if major newspapers and news programs discussed the U.Michigan study, if only for a half minute or so?
-- Michael Gordon, AKA, the buggy professor
Mr Gordon
I agree, but the good news is that if Obama gets elected you'll get all the positive media coverage you could hope for!
> if Obama gets elected you'll get all the positive media coverage you could hope for!
If Obama gets elected, the socialist and collectivist policies he implements will guarantee that all bets are off.
Assume Obama=Jimmy-Carter. You won't be wrong.
"If Obama gets elected, the socialist and collectivist policies he implements will guarantee that all bets are off."
That's the point--the media will love him for it, and whatever works out poorly can just be blamed on the bad hand Bush dealt him.
U-M economists are real clairvoyants, not.
The economy has created 6.9 million nonfarm payroll jobs since January 2000 (9.5 years) representing an average of 726,000 per year and U-M projects that it will create 3.5 million jobs in the next 2 years. The economy hasn't created 2.6 million nonfarm payroll jobs in a single year this decade.
Ya sure!
Revisit this year's clairvoyance next year.
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