Friday, August 29, 2008

Intrade 2008 Recession Odds At All-Time Low: 17%

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At 8/29/2008 9:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Do I misunderstand the Intrade contract or is its price going down because it requires two quarters of negative real GDP growth (in 2008) and we are almost through the 3rd quarter with the numbers suggesting that growth has been positive? It is sort of backward-looking at this point, which means 17 could even be too high, though I am buying at some level since high inflation numbers could cause real GDP to be negative despite positive nominal growth.


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