Intrade 2008 Recession Odds At All-Time Low: 17%
Posted @ 10:14 AM Post Link
1 Comments
CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Friday, August 29, 2008
About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Flint, Michigan, United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. Since 1997, Professor Perry has been a member of the Board of Scholars for the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, a nonpartisan research and public policy institute in Michigan.
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1 Comments:
Do I misunderstand the Intrade contract or is its price going down because it requires two quarters of negative real GDP growth (in 2008) and we are almost through the 3rd quarter with the numbers suggesting that growth has been positive? It is sort of backward-looking at this point, which means 17 could even be too high, though I am buying at some level since high inflation numbers could cause real GDP to be negative despite positive nominal growth.
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