Sunday, August 24, 2008

Gallup vs. Intrade: Pretty Big Difference

Most Recent Gallup Poll: Obama 45%, McCain 45%

Most Recent Intrade Odds: Obama 61.5%, McCain 38.4%

16 Comments:

At 8/24/2008 9:41 PM, Anonymous Mark said...

The difference shouldn't be surprising. The Gallup poll would be more comparable to the popular vote. The Intrade contract predicts who would win (i.e. who would win the electoral vote).

 
At 8/24/2008 10:18 PM, Blogger SBVOR said...

Commentator Named Mark,

1) The polling on the electoral votes has been trending in McCain’s favor.

2) Obama no longer has the 270 electoral votes required for victory.

3) For a reality check, compare the 8/23/08 polling to the polling as of 8/23/04.

4) I predict McCain will win. But, it will be a nail biter repeat of 2000 & 2004.

5) Two things will (mercifully) “swift boat” Obama:

A) Drill Here, Drill Now.

B) The Bill Ayers connection. This will be the truly decisive factor, just as (IMO) the swift boat campaign was in 2004.

 
At 8/24/2008 10:34 PM, Blogger juandos said...

IF (and I want to stress the word, 'if') people are known by the company they keep what will the following do for Obama with both Gallup and Intrade?

Frank Marshall Davis, alleged Communist, was early influence on Barack Obama

Mind you the Telegraph quotes (allegedly) Frank Davis' pedophile adventures...

 
At 8/24/2008 11:21 PM, Blogger David said...

It remind me that the recession probability on Intrade was 70% last April.

 
At 8/24/2008 11:48 PM, Blogger OBloodyHell said...

I concur mostly with sbvor. There are too many easy targets in the Obama ship of state, and all too many of them are below the waterline.

The Biden choice is just bizarre. The opposition should have no trouble turning that into an issue, and, frankly, we haven't heard the last yet on the Wright problem -- you don't go to a church for 20 years hearing racism and have that settle well with the majority of Americans. Plenty of mileage in that one, yet.

Add that to the fact that the leftards are already going overboard on the only hope they have, the inhrently racist claim that "the only reason for voting against Obama is racism".

That card is already so tattered and worn, if they keep it up (and they will, they're that stupid) then it will begin to have the opposite effect.

The SS Obama ain't exactly the Titanic, but it sure looks to me an awful lot like the Andrea Doria

 
At 8/25/2008 12:29 AM, Blogger SBVOR said...

David,

Be it economics, war, science, politics or any other subject; never underestimate the power of the media to successfully deceive (or, through sheer ignorance, stupidity and incompetence; merely misinform) a substantial number of their victims.

Every now and then, as with the recession question, the deception/misinformation eventually gives way to reality.

Once the media are saturated with the appropriate attack ads against Obama, his ship will sink.

Meantime, we can only hope that a few more will begin to understand the depth and breadth of the deception/misinformation on the war and the climate and countless other subjects.

 
At 8/25/2008 10:16 AM, Anonymous Kevin said...

I know you're a big Intrade fan but you and other Intrade lovers like Kudlow miss the fact that Intrade is heavily influenced by Europeans (it's based in the UK after all) so all the Obama lovers over there are skewing it - McCain is a BUY! Short Obama!

 
At 8/25/2008 11:11 AM, Blogger Bret said...

It may be taking into account that McCain is old and may die between now and the election.

 
At 8/25/2008 12:56 PM, Anonymous GW South said...

@ bret -

Even as a McCain supporter, I can laugh at that one. +1

 
At 8/25/2008 1:23 PM, Blogger David Peterson said...

Kevin, I think even if that's true they have an incentive to pick who they think will win rather than who they hope will win. And four years ago weren't they trading at Bush 52, Kerry 47 or something that was eerily close to the final results?

 
At 8/25/2008 4:46 PM, Blogger Marko said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 8/25/2008 7:30 PM, Blogger K T Cat said...

I think the inTrade folks were all expecting Barack to pick Dwight Eisenhower as his running mate just like I was. Instead, rampant bigotry against zombie-Americans reared its ugly head again.

Biden? He's only part zombie. It just doesn't work for me.

Expect the Obama futures to dive.

 
At 8/26/2008 10:21 AM, Blogger OBloodyHell said...

TV Announcer: Today, more on the current RECESSION...
Inigo Montoya: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

 
At 8/26/2008 10:23 AM, Blogger OBloodyHell said...

> Expect the Obama futures to dive.

Like a German U-boat spotted by a BRN destroyer...

 
At 8/26/2008 10:25 AM, Blogger OBloodyHell said...

> Instead, rampant bigotry against zombie-Americans reared its ugly head again.

k.t., It's not really rampant bigotry. It's more of a "squeaky wheel gets the grease" kind of thing. They just lie there never saying a word, so people just forget that option...

 
At 8/26/2008 6:47 PM, OpenID sethstorm said...

For the greater part, I'm waiting for McCain and any third parties to speak. So far, they're both even in non-desirability (read: both candidates have something that equally spoils them).
Give it time until McCain makes more pre-election blunders.



As for the Ayers and Davis non-issues, it's just mudslinging. Nothing more than election-time cheap shots.

Regarding the gambling poll, I'd rather see what the odds are in Vegas for the same bet. At least it's only a bet (and not trying to look like something else).

 

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