Saturday, August 30, 2008

Electoral Map Based on Home Prices?


On this recent CD post, I featured the top map above (click to enlarge) showing annual home prices changes from OFHEO. In the light blue states, home prices have increased over the last year year (2007:Q2 to 2008:Q2), and in the yellow and red states home prices have declined, with the largest percentage price declines (double-digit) in the red states (CA, FL and NV). Is it possible that the pattern of home prices increases/decreases will translate into a comparable voting pattern in the presidential election?

Real Clear Politics allows you to create your own electoral map, and the bottom map above (click to enlarge) shows the results of an analysis done at Right Thinking blog, which reports:

Conventional wisdom, and the current strategy of the Democrats, would be to use the anger and suffering of those under economic hardship to vote against the incumbent party. According to this thinking, Republicans would suffer in those states. I got to wondering that if this theory were true, how would the election turn out?


As the bottom map shows, McCain would win with 275 electoral votes to Obama's 263. As Right Thinking points out, it won't actually end up that way, but it's an interesting analysis. And using the Real Clear Politics website, you can create alternative electoral maps based on various assumptions.

HT: Ben Cunningham


7 Comments:

At 8/30/2008 9:22 AM, Blogger Dave Narby said...

I think you meant "blue states had the highest price decline". ; )


But that is a very interesting observation - And seems to confirm that people vote their pocketbook.

 
At 8/30/2008 9:35 AM, Anonymous Kevin said...

Here's another theory - Democrats on average aren't that intelligent or economically savvy. That's why you see the greatest housing price declines in Democratic states. Dems were far more likely to get overextended and take on excess mortgage debt. Anne Coulter was right - Republicans really are smarter!

 
At 8/30/2008 9:45 AM, Blogger Mark J. Perry said...

Dave: In the top map, red states had the greatest price decline, and the light blue states increased.

 
At 8/30/2008 10:24 AM, Blogger randian said...

Florida isn't yet a Democratic state, despite its election of a RINO, and I'm working hard to make sure it stays that way!

Housing price declines occur in Democratic states because they have building regulations that severely constrict the supply of housing. Thus extreme price volatility causing massive increases during booms and not quite as massive falls during busts.

 
At 8/30/2008 12:36 PM, Blogger Ironman said...

Mark: It gets even more interesting when the data is broken down into metropolitan statistical areas - and compare that to the county-by-county U.S. political map.

 
At 8/30/2008 2:57 PM, Blogger Dave Narby said...

I dunno...

Check the maps here

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/07/30/report-home-price-declines-ebbing/

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11333030

looks like more blue states than red (although there's some overlap).

Part of this might be from the incentive of blue states to encourage home ownership by people that have otherwise been home owners.

 
At 9/05/2008 2:24 PM, Blogger Stephen said...

Why did you put Virginia under Republican?

 

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