Monday, May 12, 2008

Foretelling the Future: Online Prediction Markets

ABC 20/20 Report (watch video here)--As a result of the collective intelligence of more than 77,000 bettors on Ireland's, the prices on the site may be a good way to predict the outcome of current events -- more accurate than some polls and pundits.

How accurate?

In 2004, the market odds on Intrade predicted the presidential vote of every state but Alaska. In 2006, the odds correctly indicated the outcome of every Senate race.

Note: Although most U.S. states sponsor legalized betting through state lotteries (with the worst possible odds), electronic prediction markets are illegal in the U.S.


At 5/14/2008 9:31 AM, Blogger Shawn said...

...hmm...and, why might the state want lottery betting? ah, yes, of course.


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