Friday, May 09, 2008

55% of Oil Execs Says See $100 Oil By End of '08

HOUSTON (AP)Even as oil prices ascended to new highs of more than $124 a barrel this week, many oil and gas industry executives say they expect the price to fall significantly by year's end, a new survey shows. Fifty-five percent of 372 petroleum industry executives surveyed by KPMG LLP said they think the price of a barrel of crude will drop below $100 by the end of the year. Twenty-one percent of respondents predicted a barrel of oil will end the year between $101 and $110, while 15 percent forecast the year-end price to be between $111 and $120 a barrel.

7 Comments:

At 5/09/2008 7:38 AM, Anonymous Machiavelli999 said...

They never predicted $120/barrel oil either Mark.

 
At 5/09/2008 8:54 AM, Blogger Marcus said...

Machiavelli,

Maybe that's because the high price has more to do with speculators than it does with any fundamentals within the industry.

 
At 5/09/2008 9:03 AM, Anonymous Machiavelli999 said...

marcus,

I actually agree with you. But all the economists say otherwise. I would really like Mark or somebody to explain how when we have more oil in our inventories than at the same time last year, the dollar is in the middle of a rally, copper and gold have hit resistance levels, the economy is stalling, the trade defecit is falling and yet oil continues to rise???!?!?!?

It defies logic.

I would really like to see the volume of trading on the oil exchange. Is it low enough that the hedge funds can conspire to drive the price of oil up into the stratosphere?

 
At 5/09/2008 11:19 AM, Blogger bobble said...

i agree. as they say: the cure for high prices is high prices.

at some point, the high prices will cause the demand to fall.

economies slow down, people replace their suburbans with prius's, new effiencies are implemented, alternatives are developed.

 
At 5/09/2008 12:21 PM, Blogger Marko said...

Can you say "bubble"

 
At 5/09/2008 2:27 PM, Blogger bobble said...

how elastic is the demand for gasoline? check out this great graphic from the US DOT:

miles driven

on the other hand, you could blame the decrease in miles driven on the recession . . . oops, i forgot, we aren't in a recession.

 
At 5/09/2008 7:58 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"Maybe that's because the high price has more to do with speculators than it does with any fundamentals within the industry"...

Maybe...

"I would really like Mark or somebody to explain how when we have more oil in our inventories than at the same time last year, the dollar is in the middle of a rally, copper and gold have hit resistance levels, the economy is stalling, the trade defecit is falling and yet oil continues to rise???!?!?!?"...

Something outside regular market forces at play at least here in the US of A, maybe...

Consider the actions of our modern day Copperheads...

 

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