Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
11 Comments:
When was the last time that your government or big business told you that the economy was going down the tubes?
Maybe people are looking back to news stories like Warning that war could plunge world into deep recession from November 2002 or Recession odds seen rising if war drags on from March 20, 2003.
From the first article "The effect of war on world oil prices could be devastating. George Perry, an analyst with the Brookings Institute in Washington, has drawn up three scenarios, the middle one of which suggests a tripling of prices to $75 a barrel. That would almost certainly push the world into recession."
The last article warned that robust capital spending was needed for growth in non-farm payrolls.
I wonder if that was the real reason for cheap and criminally easy to obtain loans.
To Anonymous 11:51 AM.
Some people are now calling these recessionary times the "Iraq Recession."
While some large cap companies may benefit from the dollar currency devaluation such as mining, oil, agricultural as money flows into those sector as and inflation hedge. Companies with mostly US sales will be decimated. 12500 on the DOW will provide formidable resistance with the most like path down as as commodity price skyrocket putting pressure on input cost. DOW 1100 before 15000 is the most likely path.
How bad is the economy?
That depends...
How much do you hate George Bush?
From todays New York Times
Sales of new homes fell last year by 26 percent, the steepest drop since records began in 1963, the Commerce Department said on Monday.
Last week, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales of previously owned single-family homes, a large portion of the overall housing market, suffered their biggest annual drop in 25 years.
Prices have also fallen sharply. In December, the median price of a new home fell to $219,200, down 10 percent from December 2006.
In light of these figures Wall St. anticipates another Fed Rate reduction this week and the Dow is up about 1%, oil is down and gold is up.
Goldilocks.
LOL
MC Hammer's latest move: To teach hot dance moves at www.dancejam.com.
The economy must be really fine if Chrysler is offering buyouts of up to $100,000 each to hourly workers at 12 of its Detroit-area facilities as part of its November plan to eliminate up to 10,000 unionized jobs.
In light of what appears to be a low volume short covering rally, a FED meeting decision on Wednesday that will more then likely disappoint, combined with the unbridled optimism shown by the host proving the Bulls still haven't got it and denial still reigns I doubled my short positions today. This site is great for a contrarin and will ultimately signal when the bottom is in as even the bulls have capitulate to reality.
I find it rather amazing that people will take the word of leftist - socialists like the Indenpendent and known liars like CBS since it fits their preconceived but delusional view of the real world...
Currency Trader notes: As a significant government expense, entitlement programs can have a large impact on the way investors view the value of the dollar. If it looks like the US is letting things get out of hand, these programs can shake the confidence of investors. These are a few of the programs and issues that affect the dollar.
Social Security: It’s apparent to Americans and foreigners alike that Social Security is a sinking ship that will only get worse with time. Clearly, this causes investors to lose faith in the US money management system, but when the US works to reform the program, some of this confidence is restored and the dollar can benefit.
Medicare/Medicaid: Like other costly entitlements, government sponsored-health care programs are becoming difficult to maintain, which could drive investors to seek countries with more stable budgets.
David Walker of the GAO notes: Growth in Spending for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid Expected to Outpace Economic Growth (page 8)
Ruben Navarrette in his The Scary Sense of American Entitlement notes: The No. 1 economic threat facing the United States today isn't globalization, stagnant wages, unfair trade policy or illegal immigration. And it certainly isn't what one cable TV demagogue glibly calls a "war on the middle class" by big media, big corporations and big special interests.
Rather, it's the sense of entitlement that many Americans take with them into the workplace and the eagerness with which they shift the blame when things don't go according to plan.
Interestingly the always questionable but bent left New York Times notes what is considered normal market conditions: "Last week, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales of previously owned single-family homes, a large portion of the overall housing market, suffered their biggest annual drop in 25 years.
Prices have also fallen sharply. In December, the median price of a new home fell to $219,200, down 10 percent from December 2006."
Hmmm, imagine that!
Now imagine this: As New Home Sales Stall, Deals Abound Desperate builders are sweetening deals on new homes in many of the biggest markets in the U.S.
So unless you feel that you too are a victim of 'financial apartheid' now is a good time to buy a house if you are in the market for one...
World stockmarkets lost 5.2 trillion dollars (3.6 trillion euros) in January thanks to the fallout from the US subprime crisis and fears of a global economic slowdown, Standard & Poor's said Saturday.
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