"Whether a recession occurs -- a determination made by academic economists, usually after the fact -- probably won't affect most people. Economist Richard Berner of Morgan Stanley expects a "mild and short" recession, with peak unemployment of 5.6% or 5.7% in early 2009. The average unemployment rate of the past 50 years is 5.6%. This would be a setback, but not a disaster."
Good point, Robert. Even in the worst case scenario of a recession with a peak unemployment rate of 5.6-5.7% in 2009, it will be the first recession since WWII with an unemployment rate during a recession with a peak rate equal to only the historical average unemployment rate of 5.6% (since WWII). That is, in all of the ten past recessions since WWII (listed below), the peak unemployment rate was always above the average rate of 5.6% (see graph above, click to enlarge, recessions are shaded):
2009?: ONLY 5.6-5.7%?
Bottom Line: A 2009 recession, as predicted by Morgan Stanley, with a peak unemployment rate of only 5.6-5.7% would be the mildest, shallowest recession since WWII, and maybe in U.S. history?