Saturday, December 29, 2007

Only 2 Out of 54 Economists Expect '08 Recession

For 2008, the economic outlook is Topic No. 1 for almost all investors. Stock prices and bond yields already reflect recession worries, but an actual downturn would hit portfolios hard. To help get a handle on what to expect, BusinessWeek asked 54 forecasters for their views on everything from housing and the credit crunch to Fed policy and global growth. (Click here for full survey results.)

Bottom Line: The economists project, on average, that the economy will grow 2.1% from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the end of 2008, vs. 2.6% in 2007. Only two of the forecasters expect a recession, although it might feel like one if there's sluggish growth over the next couple of quarters, as many predict.

3 Comments:

At 12/29/2007 6:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Only two of the forecasters expect a recession, although it might feel like one if there's sluggish growth over the next couple of quarters, as many predict.

The reason that it might feel like a recession is that prior to all the re-adjustments in definitions it would have been called a recession.

They can alway re-adjust the definition of a recession again if there is any danger of slipping into one.

The PROBLEM with the publicly stated expectations of those "economists" is that they are biased.

 
At 12/30/2007 12:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

My financial advisor is moving me to more secure positions as of NOW.
Just sayin'...

 
At 12/31/2007 11:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Economists have predicted 12 of the last 5 recessions.

 

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