Sunday, October 14, 2007

Futures Trading for Nobel Prize in Economics 2007

Front runner Robert Barro:

The Nobel Prize in Economics will be announced in the next few days. Based on futures trading on Intrade.com for the contract "Nobel Prize for Economics Winner 2007," Robert Barro is the front-runner, with a 22% chance of winning, followed by Romer (13.5%), Fama and Diamond (both a 11.5%), based on the last trades (see chart above, click to enlarge).

5 Comments:

At 10/14/2007 9:46 AM, Blogger holeydonut said...

Haha, I think it's great every Economics teacher finds a way to somehow incorporate Tradesports/InTrade into their discussions.

What took you so long for this blog?

I remember back when you could do a legitimate (but arguably unethical) derivative on InTrade for an overt US attack on Iran. But I guess they revamped their rules.

I'm still curious how these guys come up with the value of their positions on InTrade... it seems almost arbitrary sometimes. Ugh H. Clinton has a 67.9 trading price for the Democratic nomination.

 
At 10/14/2007 10:02 AM, Blogger holeydonut said...

Ah, never mind my comment about that Overt Air Strike; it's still there.

It's kind of unnerving that the InTrade market believes the likelihood for an air strike against Iran by 03/31/08 is 16.0%.

 
At 10/14/2007 4:39 PM, Blogger Mark J. Perry said...

Holeydonut: I have mentioned Intrade.com at least 8 times in previous posts, you can search the blog to find them.

 
At 10/15/2007 8:35 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

HOLEY MOLEY ROY ! So much for your Nobel prognostications.

 
At 10/18/2007 2:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

good job mark perry!!
these futures seem to work great!!

 

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