Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
The graph above show the closing prices for futures trading on Intrade for the contract "The US Economy Will Go Into Recession During 2007." According to these contracts, there is only a 13-13.5% chance that the U.S. economy will go into recession by the end of the year. I have taken a short position on these contracts, meaning that I assume that the U.S. economy will NOT go into recession this year.
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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