Monday, July 02, 2012

Online Job Demand Rises in June; Both Total Ads and New Ads Reach New Monthly Record Highs

From today's Conference Board report on online labor demand:

"Online advertised vacancies rose 232,000 in June to 4,947,100, according to the Conference Board's Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Index. Following little growth in the first two months of the second quarter, June closed out the quarter with a strong gain. The Supply/Demand rate stands at 2.7 unemployed for every vacancy.

“Online labor demand in the first half of 2012 increased by an average of 104,000 per month, but about one-third of both the States and the 100 largest metro areas are still below their pre-recession highs for labor demand,” said June Shelp, Vice President at The Conference Board. “As of June, almost half of the occupational groups have Supply/Demand rates at or below 2.0. However, most of these are in the professional categories, such as business and finance, healthcare professionals, and management. Although we’ve seen improvement, other categories like construction, building and grounds maintenance, and personal care are still struggling with high Supply/Demand rates.

Other highlights include:

1. All 20 of the largest metro areas posted gains in labor demand in June.

2. Eight of the 20 largest metro areas have supply/demand rates below 2, indicating that there are fewer than two unemployed workers for every online advertised vacancy.

MP: Both total online job vacancies (4.94 million) and new ads (3.16 million) are now well above their pre-recession levels (see chart above) and both set new monthly record highs in June.  June's 232,000 monthly increase in online vacancies follows a 246,000 increase in March, bringing the total increase over the last four months to 524,000, the largest four-month increase in online advertised jobs since early 2007.

The Supply/Demand ratio has been below 3.0 for the last four months in a row for the first time since the fall of 2008, more than three years ago. Today's Conference Board report provides more evidence that the labor market is gradually recovering, and the sharp increase in online job vacancies over the last four months forecasts increased hiring activity in the coming months.


At 7/02/2012 10:55 AM, Blogger bart said...

And claims have been stuck around 375k for many months.

And my reconstructed U7 unemployment rate is stubbornly above 22%.

At 7/02/2012 10:57 AM, Blogger bart said...

U3, U6, U7b unemployment rates

At 7/02/2012 1:21 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Indeed Bart.

Although jobs are being added at a descent rate, I really wish they would be added faster. Only, I fear that, because of how the APA law is written, there may become more emphasis on part-time workers and temps in the future. Hopefully, I am being too melodramatic on that.

At 7/02/2012 1:58 PM, Blogger bart said...

Although jobs are being added at a descent rate, I really wish they would be added faster.

Same here... and good point on part timers. It's another of those stats that in my opinion is way under reported and valued. So very many of the jobs being created *are* only part time - not a good indicator.

Part timers percentage

At 7/02/2012 2:28 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

One thing I have noticed is that in recent years (2000 onward), we have begun passing laws that encourage part-time hiring (either directly or indirectly). Full time employees must be provided certain benefits. Full time employees must be given a break of so many minutes for every hour worked. Full time employees are entitled to certain pay structures if they are hourly. You get my point.

I was just wondering your thoughts on this, Bart (and anyone else who wants to share). Are you seeing something similar? Am I reading too much into this?

At 7/02/2012 2:47 PM, Blogger bart said...

My uncensored thoughts are almost unprintable... -g- ... but laws and regulations like those basically reward a lack of growth -- and a high paid cadre of company accountants, consultants and lawyers.

Even simpler - reward hiring of part timers, and you get more part times.
Only the rocket scientists in DC, Brussels, etc, don't see it.

At 7/02/2012 6:11 PM, Blogger Henry H said...

The help wanted index's biggest regional gain in the Mountain Region(Arizona, Nevada, Colorado) correlates well with the gain in home sales posted earlier by MP.

At 7/03/2012 9:50 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

i think this index is essentially useless as it is likely measuring somehting other than job opportunities.


the current value is way above 2006, even adjusted for population. yet i doubt anyone would say it's easier to find a job no than in 2006.

what is likely really going on is that the number of sites and net venues for job postings keeps increasing as does the share of jobs posted online.

so, you are really measuring internet growth, quintuple counting jobs that appear in 5 places, and measuring the fact that a higher % of jobs are now posted online.

to look at this chart, you would think we were looking good, but when you compare it to payrolls, you see that they are not tracking it at all well.

At 7/03/2012 3:30 PM, Blogger juandos said...

One reason maybe of why jobs aren't being added at a faster rate: Dear Person Seeking a Job: Why I Can't Hire You

Potential employers have to respond to the incentives and disincentives that exist in today's world, and those do not favor conventional permanent employees


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