"Tomorrow begins July, meaning that we have arrived at midyear, the point
by which ECRI
[MP: Self-described as the "world's leading authority on business cycles"] predicted we would enter a new recession. While we don't
have the June data, as of May real income, payrolls, and real retail
sales continued to rise, although retail sales are below their March
peak. Industrial production was off slightly in May from its post
recession peak in April.
In monthly data released last week, new
home sales continued their recent improvement, reaching a 2 year high.
The Case-Shiller index of repeat home sales after adjusting for
seasonality still improved slightly for the third month in a row.
Durable goods orders increased although their overall trend is still
sideways. The Chicago PMI remained slightly positive. Consumer
confidence continued to fade. Consumer spending was flat, but as
indicated above consumer income improved."
MP: After summarizing about two dozen additional economic indicators, most of which were mildly positive, neutral, or mildly negative, here the conclusion:
"All things considered, it appears that this summer, like the summers of
2010 and 2011, will likely be the weakest point of the year. Deflation
now should set up a rebound later. Turning to the title of this
piece, while I suspect it will be touch and go for a couple more months,
I continue to believe that ECRI's prediction will ultimately be proven