Tuesday, April 03, 2012

U.S. Emerges As A Main Engine of Global Growth

America is now a "standout economy"

BLOOMBERG -- "The U.S. once again may be emerging as a main engine for global growth -- and at an opportune time, as Europe slides into recession and China’s economy decelerates. An improving job market, rising stock prices and easier credit are combining to lift U.S. consumer confidence and spending, with optimism measured by the Bloomberg Comfort Index near a four-year high. Personal-consumption expenditures increased by the most in seven months in February, rising 0.8 percent, the Commerce Department said last week. 

We’re entering a sweet spot for the economy,” said Allen Sinai, president of Decision Economics Inc. in New York. “We’re in a self-reinforcing cycle,” where faster employment growth leads to higher household income and increased consumer spending. 

The U.S. is taking the lead in global growth, thanks in part to a domestic glut of natural gas, Larry Kantor, head of research at Barclays in New York, wrote in a March 22 report. Natural-gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to 10-year lows last week, helping to blunt the impact of higher oil prices on the economy. 

U.S. manufacturers are benefiting, with the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index climbing to 53.4 (NAPMPMI) last month, beating the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey, from 52.4 in February, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said yesterday. Readings greater than 50 signal growth. 

The recovery “has been an emerging-market -- really a Chinese-led -- story, with the U.S. having lagged the cycle,” Kantor said. “Now, however, the U.S. has reasserted its traditional role, and the current pickup in growth is clearly being led by the U.S.”


At 4/03/2012 1:41 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Actually, the U.S. has been the main engine of global growth, not only because it leads the rest of the world combined in the Information and Biotech Revolutions (in both revenue and profit), it has been a "black hole" in the global economy, attracting imports and capital, and even the owners of that capital themselves.

At 4/03/2012 1:45 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

This global "train wreck," including in Europe and China, originated in the U.S..

At 4/03/2012 1:47 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

And the U.S. has been the engine pulling China's economy, not the other way around.

At 4/03/2012 2:00 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

When the U.S. engine stopped in 2009, China had to implement a huge $586 billion stimulus package.

At 4/03/2012 2:03 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Europe is collapsing from anemic U.S. growth.

At 4/03/2012 2:16 PM, Blogger Its GSATT said...

China is about to return the favor. All that currency we pumped into their economy literally is sitting in their bank. They have stockpiled so much that they are becoming worried of being stuck with our dwindling dollar. So, like anyone would do, get rid of it!!! They're standard of living is going up and the companies that have received US currency are now reversing operations and buying from the USA. USA produced goods have the reputation for quality over their.(kinda funny if you think about it)

China is now our 3rd or 4th largest consumer, and growing. Hopefully Obama doesn't screw that up too.

At 4/03/2012 2:21 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

if the us is the engine of global growth, then we are in real trouble.

the us has put up real GDP growth of damn near zero for the last 2 quarters if you deflate it in any rational manner.

all the reported growth has been from gdp-d being so far below cpi.

At 4/03/2012 2:54 PM, Blogger Buddy R Pacifico said...

The farthest back the Bloomberg Comfort Index goes back is five years. Interesting that it has never had a positive reading.

The high over the last sixty months was 4-29-2007, when the index almost broke into positive territory.

Are negative consumers going to drive the economy? I don't think so. It's going to be tech, energy and manufacturing(also, heavily energy related) and much export thereof.

At 4/03/2012 2:56 PM, Blogger Donny Baseball said...

While I don't deny the economy is doing better, I have had a Bloomberg in front of me everyday for 10 years. Bloomberg News is a rabid lefty news outlet with a major pro-Obama mission. Every day they've got a puffed up piece about the economy that provides a clear slant for Obama's re-election (and Allan Sinai is a "go to guy" for their message). BN also runs a daily piece making the Republicans look like the rapacious trogodytes that all liberals just know they are. Bloomberg News is every bit as slanted and egregious as MSNBC. Be careful with BN as a source.

At 4/03/2012 4:11 PM, Blogger misterjosh said...

Or do we only look good because everybody else in the world looks so bad?

At 4/03/2012 4:14 PM, Blogger Benjamin Cole said...

The Fed has to print a lot more money, Our dollars flow into the world where they are traded about boosting growth everywhere.

USA growth has been anemic. China's growth is "cooling off" to 8 percent. That is cooling off? Remember, the Chinese central bank "has a revealed preference for growth over inflation-fighting."

They print more money every year, and they have terrific growth every year. That China story has a couple more decades left.

At 4/03/2012 4:36 PM, Blogger Che is dead said...

The "Bloomberg Comfort Index" ?? Funny, the U.S. Misery Index - which, if anything, understates the current situation - isn't looking comfortable at all.

At 4/03/2012 4:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It seems possible to lead the world in growth while still adopting big government policies that encourage a permanent underclass.

Kinda a mixed bag..


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