Thursday, October 07, 2010

Odds for the Nobel Prize in Economics

The Nobel Prize for Economics will be announced next Monday, October 11 in Sweden.  From the New Zealand-based prediction website iPredict, here are the current odds for winners:

Richard Thaler: 24.35%

Oliver Hart: 24%

Robert Shiller: 20.86%

Jean Tirole: 19.78%

Martin Weitzman: 17.50%

William Norhaus: 16.80%

Angus Deaton: 11.24%

Eugene Fama: 8.32%

Avinash Dixit: 7.82%

Robert Barro: 6.91%


At 10/07/2010 9:05 PM, Blogger Paul Walker said...

The major problem here is that they are very thin markets. There just aren't that many NZers who know or care about the econ Nobel.

At 10/07/2010 9:07 PM, Blogger Matt Burgess said...

Thanks for the mention Mark - Matt from iPredict.

At 10/07/2010 9:09 PM, Blogger Mark J. Perry said...


Just because it's based in NZ doesn't mean trading is restricted to that country. Intrade is based in Ireland and attracts a global market. Prediction markets are illegal in the U.S., and have to be based elsewhere, but could attract lots of Americans.

At 10/08/2010 8:11 AM, Blogger Anonymous Bosh said...

But... but... but...


At 10/08/2010 2:47 PM, Blogger Hydra said...

Are you sure this isn't Odds in Nobel Prize Economics?

At 10/08/2010 2:48 PM, Blogger NormanB said...

What? Obama isn't on the list?

At 10/08/2010 3:21 PM, Blogger juandos said...

I just gotta ask, who would want to be on the same list as Krugman and Stiglitz and was nominated by a collection of socialist Norwegians?

Its sort of the scarlet letter, right? The big red "K" for Keynesian?

At 10/08/2010 5:05 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

"I just gotta ask, who would want to be on the same list as Krugman and Stiglitz and was nominated by a collection of socialist Norwegians?"

Hmm. Good point, juandos, can't say that I'd want to be on the list for a peace prize either.

At 10/10/2010 4:25 PM, Blogger juandos said...

How about the odds of this happening?

From Bloomberg: `Black Swan' Author Says Investors Should Sue Nobel for Crisis

“I want to make the Nobel accountable,” Taleb said today in an interview in London. “Citizens should sue if they lost their job or business owing to the breakdown in the financial system.”

Taleb said that the Nobel Prize for Economics has conferred legitimacy on risk models that caused investors’ losses and taxpayer-funded bailouts. Sweden’s central bank will announce the winner of this year’s award on Oct. 11...


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