71% Odds of At Least +45 Seats for Republicans
The chart above is from this website and summarizes the current Intrade betting odds for various gains in House seats for Republicans. Intrade contracts which are trading above 50% odds are shaded dark red, and contracts below 50% are a lighter shade. As of today, there is 71% chance that the Republicans will gain at least 45 seats.
The same website is showing a net gain of 8 Senate seats for the Republicans (AR, CO, IL, IN, ND, PA, WI and WV). Updated: It should be AR, and not AZ.
6 Comments:
AZ isn't a gain. I can understand how McCain could confuse you though.
Angela = Where do you see AZ as a gain? The website doesn't show the SENATE as a gain.
That's what Nate Silver is predicting as well. He was pretty accurate in 2008. 49/50 for states in the presidential election & 100% on senators.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
If I was a betting man, I'd be betting on Nate Silver's prediction.
Personally I take exception to the idea of labeling McCain as Republican...
Angela,
Mark did type "AZ" as a Republican gain. I think he meant to type "AR".
Sorry, it should have been AR (Arkansas) and NOT AZ (Arizona), I apologize for the mistake and confusion.
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