Tuesday, October 05, 2010

71% Odds of At Least +45 Seats for Republicans

The chart above is from this website and summarizes the current Intrade betting odds for various gains in House seats for Republicans.  Intrade contracts which are trading above 50% odds are shaded dark red, and contracts below 50% are a lighter shade.  As of today, there is 71% chance that the Republicans will gain at least 45 seats. 

The same website is showing a net gain of 8 Senate seats for the Republicans (AR, CO, IL, IN, ND, PA, WI and WV).  Updated: It should be AR, and not AZ.

6 Comments:

At 10/05/2010 3:49 PM, Blogger Angela said...

AZ isn't a gain. I can understand how McCain could confuse you though.

 
At 10/05/2010 7:34 PM, Blogger Dr. Common Sense said...

Angela = Where do you see AZ as a gain? The website doesn't show the SENATE as a gain.

 
At 10/05/2010 9:46 PM, Blogger misterjosh said...

That's what Nate Silver is predicting as well. He was pretty accurate in 2008. 49/50 for states in the presidential election & 100% on senators.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

If I was a betting man, I'd be betting on Nate Silver's prediction.

 
At 10/05/2010 9:51 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Personally I take exception to the idea of labeling McCain as Republican...

 
At 10/06/2010 2:01 AM, Blogger Jet Beagle said...

Angela,

Mark did type "AZ" as a Republican gain. I think he meant to type "AR".

 
At 10/06/2010 7:06 AM, Blogger Mark J. Perry said...

Sorry, it should have been AR (Arkansas) and NOT AZ (Arizona), I apologize for the mistake and confusion.

 

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